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Predictions › Colombia › Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas
Colombian Primera AFri 2 Oct, 01:00 Colombia time

Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas prediction

Metropolitano de Techo

Internacional de BogotáHome
1.23 : 1.25
expected goals
Once CaldasAway
35%Inter Bogotá
29%Draw
36%Once Caldas
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas is Once Caldas to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Once Caldas to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Internacional de Bogotá 1.2, Once Caldas 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.331 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Internacional de Bogotá 35%, the draw 29% and Once Caldas 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Once Caldas the favourite at 2.70.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Internacional de Bogotá took 5 points from their last 5 games and Once Caldas took 3 from 5. Internacional de Bogotá come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Internacional de Bogotá won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Once Caldas won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Internacional de Bogotá score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.7. Once Caldas score 1.2 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Internacional de Bogotá games and 9 of Once Caldas games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Internacional de Bogotá won 0 and Once Caldas won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Once Caldas 2, Internacional de Bogotá 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Once Caldasrecent form-1%
  • Inter Bogotárest between games-5%
  • Once Caldasrest between games-2%
Inter Bogotá form D L L W WOnce Caldas form L L W L WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas: Once Caldas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Internacional de Bogotá host Once Caldas in the Colombian Primera A on Fri 2 Oct, 01:00 at Metropolitano de Techo. Our prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas is Once Caldas to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Internacional de Bogotá form

Internacional de Bogotá have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Once Caldas form

Once Caldas have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 7 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Internacional de Bogotá won 0, Once Caldas won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Once Caldas 2, Internacional de Bogotá 1.

Our call

We expect Internacional de Bogotá to score about 1.2 goals and Once Caldas about 1.3. That points to Once Caldas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.33.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Inter BogotáOnce Caldas
Games played2020
Wins45
Draws78
Losses97
Goals scored2424
Goals conceded3427
Scored per game1.21.2
Conceded per game1.71.4
Home record4W 2D 4L4W 1D 5L
Away record0W 5D 5L1W 7D 2L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Internacional de Bogotá to win33%3.032.80-7.6%
A Draw28%3.642.60-28.5%
Once Caldas to win34%2.952.70-8.4%
Over 2.5 goals43%2.352.00-15.0%
Under 2.5 goals51%1.951.69-13.4%
Internacional de Bogotá +0.564%1.561.40-10.3%
Once Caldas -0.533%3.012.60-13.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals45%2.21
Over 3.5 goals24%4.18
Both teams to score51%1.95
Internacional de Bogotá or Draw64%1.57
Once Caldas or Draw65%1.54
Internacional de Bogotá to win and Over 2.519%5.17
Once Caldas to win and Over 2.520%5.00
Internacional de Bogotá clean sheet29%3.51
Once Caldas clean sheet29%3.42

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%
0-19.7%
1-09.5%
0-09.1%
1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas?

Our prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas is Once Caldas to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Internacional de Bogotá to score 1.2 goals and Once Caldas 1.3.

Will both teams score in Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Internacional de Bogotá last 20 games and 13 of Once Caldas last 20.

How are Internacional de Bogotá playing?

Internacional de Bogotá have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Once Caldas playing?

Once Caldas have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 7 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Internacional de Bogotá and Once Caldas last met?

It ended Once Caldas 2, Internacional de Bogotá 1. In the last 2 meetings Internacional de Bogotá won 0 and Once Caldas won 2.

What is the best bet for Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Inter Bogotá against Once Caldas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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