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BrasileiraoWed 7 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Internacional vs Corinthians prediction

Estadio Beira-Rio

InternacionalHome

1.35 : 1.03

expected goals

CorinthiansAway

43%Internacional

29%Draw

28%Corinthians

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Internacional vs Corinthians is Internacional to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Internacional to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Internacional 1.4, Corinthians 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Internacional 43%, the draw 29% and Corinthians 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Internacional the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Internacional took 4 points from their last 5 games and Corinthians took 1 from 5. Internacional come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Internacional won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Corinthians won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Internacional score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Corinthians score 1.1 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Internacional games and 9 of Corinthians games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Internacional won 1 and Corinthians won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Corinthians 0, Internacional 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Internacionalrecent form-4%
Corinthiansrecent form-6%

Internacional form L W L L LCorinthians form L L L D LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Internacional vs Corinthians: Internacional shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Internacional host Corinthians in the Brasileirao on Wed 7 Oct, 22:30 at Estadio Beira-Rio. Our prediction for Internacional vs Corinthians is Internacional to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Internacional form

Internacional have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Corinthians form

Corinthians have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Internacional won 1, Corinthians won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Corinthians 0, Internacional 1.

Our call

We expect Internacional to score about 1.4 goals and Corinthians about 1.0. That points to Internacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.34.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Internacional	Corinthians
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	6
Draws	8	5
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	23	22
Goals conceded	27	24
Scored per game	1.1	1.1
Conceded per game	1.4	1.2
Home record	2W 5D 3L	4W 1D 6L
Away record	2W 3D 5L	2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Internacional to win	40%	2.48	2.05	-17.3%
A Draw	28%	3.61	3.20	-11.4%
Corinthians to win	27%	3.75	3.55	-5.4%
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.45	2.05	-16.3%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.65	-12.9%
Internacional -0.5	42%	2.36	1.95	-17.3%
Corinthians +0.5	51%	1.95	1.69	-13.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	70%	1.44
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.35
Over 3.5 goals	22%	4.59
Both teams to score	48%	2.06
Internacional or Draw	72%	1.38
Corinthians or Draw	57%	1.77
Internacional to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.30
Corinthians to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.10
Internacional clean sheet	36%	2.80
Corinthians clean sheet	26%	3.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

1-011.7%

0-010.0%

0-18.7%

2-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Internacional vs Corinthians?

Our prediction for Internacional vs Corinthians is Internacional to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Internacional vs Corinthians?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Internacional to score 1.4 goals and Corinthians 1.0.

Will both teams score in Internacional vs Corinthians?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Internacional last 20 games and 11 of Corinthians last 20.

How are Internacional playing?

How are Corinthians playing?

What happened when Internacional and Corinthians last met?

It ended Corinthians 0, Internacional 1. In the last 2 meetings Internacional won 1 and Corinthians won 0.

What is the best bet for Internacional vs Corinthians?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Internacional against Corinthians. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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