Predictions › Europa League › Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia

Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia prediction

Stadion Miejski Bialystok

Jagiellonia BialystokHome

2.16 : 0.89

expected goals

Ararat-ArmeniaAway

66%Jagiellonia

20%Draw

14%Ararat-Armenia

Eagle safe pickJagiellonia Bialystok to win

1.41

Quick answer

Our prediction for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia is Jagiellonia Bialystok to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 1.41.

Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok to win
Chance: 66%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Jagiellonia Bialystok 2.2, Ararat-Armenia 0.9
Best bet: Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 1.41
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Jagiellonia Bialystok to win

67% chancePrice 1.411 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Jagiellonia Bialystok to win and Over 2.5

42% chanceFair price 2.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Jagiellonia Bialystok 66%, the draw 20% and Ararat-Armenia 14%. The bookmakers agree and make Jagiellonia Bialystok the favourite at 1.41.
2
Recent form
Jagiellonia Bialystok took 4 points from their last 5 games and Ararat-Armenia took 0 from 1. Jagiellonia Bialystok come in with the better run.
3
Goals
Jagiellonia Bialystok score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.2. Ararat-Armenia score 1.0 and let in 4.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Jagiellonia Bialystok games and 1 of Ararat-Armenia games in that run.
4
The safest bet
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win has a 67% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Jagiellonia recent form+3%

Jagiellonia form L W W D WArarat-Armenia form L W D L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia: Jagiellonia Bialystok are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Jagiellonia Bialystok host Ararat-Armenia in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at Stadion Miejski Bialystok. Our prediction for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia is Jagiellonia Bialystok to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 1.41.

Jagiellonia Bialystok form

Jagiellonia Bialystok have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 9 games, with 10 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Ararat-Armenia form

Ararat-Armenia have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss in their last 1 games, with 1 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their last 1 results read L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Jagiellonia Bialystok to score about 2.2 goals and Ararat-Armenia about 0.9. That points to Jagiellonia Bialystok to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 1.41. Our bold bet is Jagiellonia Bialystok to win and Over 2.5 at 2.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 9 games in all competitions.

	Jagiellonia	Ararat-Armenia
Games played	9	1
Wins	3	0
Draws	3	0
Losses	3	1
Goals scored	10	1
Goals conceded	11	4
Scored per game	1.1	1.0
Conceded per game	1.2	4.0
Home record	2W 0D 2L	0W 0D 1L
Away record	1W 3D 1L	n/a
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Both teams scored	56%	100%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	100%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win	67%	1.50	1.41	-5.9%
A Draw	20%	4.99	4.70	-5.8%
Ararat-Armenia to win	13%	7.54	7.00	-7.1%
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.79	1.59	-11.5%
Under 2.5 goals	39%	2.58	2.25	-12.8%
Jagiellonia Bialystok -1.5	42%	2.40	2.00	-16.5%
Ararat-Armenia +1.5	53%	1.90	1.65	-13.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.76
Both teams to score	53%	1.90
Jagiellonia Bialystok or Draw	86%	1.16
Ararat-Armenia or Draw	34%	2.94
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win and Over 2.5	45%	2.22
Ararat-Armenia to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.27
Jagiellonia Bialystok clean sheet	41%	2.43
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet	12%	8.65

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.1%

2-19.8%

1-09.7%

1-19.7%

3-08.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?

Our prediction for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia is Jagiellonia Bialystok to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 1.41.

What is the score prediction for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Jagiellonia Bialystok to score 2.2 goals and Ararat-Armenia 0.9.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of Jagiellonia Bialystok last 9 games and 1 of Ararat-Armenia last 1.

How are Jagiellonia Bialystok playing?

How are Ararat-Armenia playing?

Ararat-Armenia have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss in their last 1 games, with 1 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their last 1 results read L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?

Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 1.41, with a 67% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Jagiellonia against Ararat-Armenia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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