Predictions › Colombia › Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima

Colombian Primera ASun 11 Oct, 21:05 Colombia time

Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima prediction

Estadio Jaraguay (Municipal de Montería)

Jaguares de CórdobaHome

1.09 : 1.35

expected goals

Deportes TolimaAway

29%Jaguares

29%Draw

42%Tolima

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima is Deportes Tolima to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Deportes Tolima to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Jaguares de Córdoba 1.1, Deportes Tolima 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Jaguares de Córdoba 29%, the draw 29% and Deportes Tolima 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Jaguares de Córdoba took 3 points from their last 5 games and Deportes Tolima took 5 from 5. Deportes Tolima come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Jaguares de Córdoba won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Deportes Tolima won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Jaguares de Córdoba score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.7. Deportes Tolima score 1.1 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Jaguares de Córdoba games and 11 of Deportes Tolima games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Jaguares de Córdoba won 0 and Deportes Tolima won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportes Tolima 3, Jaguares de Córdoba 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Jaguaresrecent form-3%
Tolimarecent form-1%

Jaguares form L L D D DTolima form D D L L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima: Deportes Tolima shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Jaguares de Córdoba host Deportes Tolima in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 11 Oct, 21:05 at Estadio Jaraguay (Municipal de Montería). Our prediction for Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima is Deportes Tolima to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Jaguares de Córdoba form

Jaguares de Córdoba have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Deportes Tolima form

Deportes Tolima have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Jaguares de Córdoba won 0, Deportes Tolima won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportes Tolima 3, Jaguares de Córdoba 1.

Our call

We expect Jaguares de Córdoba to score about 1.1 goals and Deportes Tolima about 1.4. That points to Deportes Tolima to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Jaguares	Tolima
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	8
Draws	6	4
Losses	11	8
Goals scored	22	23
Goals conceded	34	24
Scored per game	1.1	1.1
Conceded per game	1.7	1.2
Home record	3W 4D 4L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	0W 2D 7L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	15%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.41
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.27
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.35
Both teams to score	50%	2.00
Jaguares de Córdoba or Draw	58%	1.73
Deportes Tolima or Draw	71%	1.41
Jaguares de Córdoba to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.48
Deportes Tolima to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.33
Jaguares de Córdoba clean sheet	26%	3.87
Deportes Tolima clean sheet	34%	2.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

0-111.0%

0-09.5%

1-08.7%

1-28.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima?

Our prediction for Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima is Deportes Tolima to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Jaguares de Córdoba to score 1.1 goals and Deportes Tolima 1.4.

Will both teams score in Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Jaguares de Córdoba last 20 games and 10 of Deportes Tolima last 20.

How are Jaguares de Córdoba playing?

How are Deportes Tolima playing?

What happened when Jaguares de Córdoba and Deportes Tolima last met?

It ended Deportes Tolima 3, Jaguares de Córdoba 1. In the last 1 meeting Jaguares de Córdoba won 0 and Deportes Tolima won 1.

What is the best bet for Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Jaguares against Tolima. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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