Predictions › Italy › Juve Stabia vs Cesena

Serie BFri 18 Sept, 18:30 Italy time

Juve Stabia vs Cesena prediction

Romeo Menti di Castellammare

Juve StabiaHome

1.31 : 1.09

expected goals

CesenaAway

41%Juve Stabia

29%Draw

30%Cesena

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Juve Stabia vs Cesena is Juve Stabia to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: Juve Stabia to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Juve Stabia 1.3, Cesena 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Juve Stabia 41%, the draw 29% and Cesena 30%. The bookmakers agree and make Juve Stabia the favourite at 2.30.
2
Recent form
Juve Stabia took 4 points from their last 5 games and Cesena took 6 from 5. Cesena come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Juve Stabia won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Cesena won 1 of their last 8 on the road.
4
Goals
Juve Stabia score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Cesena score 1.1 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Juve Stabia games and 10 of Cesena games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Juve Stabia won 1 and Cesena won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Juve Stabia 2, Cesena 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Juve Stabiarecent form-3%
Juve Stabiarest between games-5%
Cesenarest between games-5%

Juve Stabia form D L W L LCesena form D D W D LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Juve Stabia vs Cesena: Juve Stabia shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Juve Stabia host Cesena in the Serie B on Fri 18 Sept, 18:30 at Romeo Menti di Castellammare. Our prediction for Juve Stabia vs Cesena is Juve Stabia to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Juve Stabia form

Juve Stabia have 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Cesena form

Cesena have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Juve Stabia won 1, Cesena won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Juve Stabia 2, Cesena 0.

Our call

We expect Juve Stabia to score about 1.3 goals and Cesena about 1.1. That points to Juve Stabia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.28.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Juve Stabia	Cesena
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	3
Draws	9	9
Losses	7	8
Goals scored	21	22
Goals conceded	26	34
Scored per game	1.1	1.1
Conceded per game	1.3	1.7
Home record	2W 4D 3L	2W 6D 4L
Away record	2W 5D 4L	1W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	15%	20%
Both teams scored	65%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Juve Stabia to win	38%	2.66	2.30	-13.5%
A Draw	28%	3.63	3.15	-13.2%
Cesena to win	29%	3.50	3.00	-14.4%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.35	2.00	-14.9%
Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.82	1.69	-7.1%
Juve Stabia -0.5	38%	2.65	2.20	-16.8%
Cesena +0.5	60%	1.67	1.54	-8.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	70%	1.43
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.33
Over 3.5 goals	22%	4.53
Both teams to score	49%	2.03
Juve Stabia or Draw	70%	1.43
Cesena or Draw	59%	1.69
Juve Stabia to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.55
Cesena to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.42
Juve Stabia clean sheet	34%	2.96
Cesena clean sheet	27%	3.71

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%

1-011.2%

0-09.9%

0-19.1%

2-18.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Juve Stabia vs Cesena?

Our prediction for Juve Stabia vs Cesena is Juve Stabia to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Juve Stabia vs Cesena?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Juve Stabia to score 1.3 goals and Cesena 1.1.

Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cesena?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Juve Stabia last 20 games and 12 of Cesena last 20.

How are Juve Stabia playing?

How are Cesena playing?

What happened when Juve Stabia and Cesena last met?

It ended Juve Stabia 2, Cesena 0. In the last 2 meetings Juve Stabia won 1 and Cesena won 0.

What is the best bet for Juve Stabia vs Cesena?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Juve Stabia against Cesena. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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