Predictions › Uruguay › Juventud vs Danubio

Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 13 Sept, 16:00 Uruguay time

Juventud vs Danubio prediction

Estadio Juventud Parque Artigas

JuventudHome

1.35 : 0.96

expected goals

DanubioAway

45%Juventud

29%Draw

26%Danubio

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Juventud vs Danubio is Juventud to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction: Juventud to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Juventud 1.4, Danubio 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.212 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.331 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Juventud 45%, the draw 29% and Danubio 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Juventud the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Juventud took 8 points from their last 5 games and Danubio took 2 from 5. Juventud come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Juventud won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Danubio won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Juventud score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.3. Danubio score 0.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Juventud games and 7 of Danubio games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Juventud won 0 and Danubio won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Danubio 1, Juventud 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Juventudrecent form+1%
Danubiorecent form-4%

Juventud form D W W L DDanubio form L L D D LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Juventud vs Danubio: Juventud shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Juventud host Danubio in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 13 Sept, 16:00 at Estadio Juventud Parque Artigas. Our prediction for Juventud vs Danubio is Juventud to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Juventud form

Juventud have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Danubio form

Danubio have 1 win, 10 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 11 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Juventud won 0, Danubio won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Danubio 1, Juventud 1.

Our call

We expect Juventud to score about 1.4 goals and Danubio about 1.0. That points to Juventud to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.33.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Juventud	Danubio
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	1
Draws	6	10
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	24	11
Goals conceded	25	26
Scored per game	1.2	0.6
Conceded per game	1.3	1.3
Home record	4W 1D 4L	0W 6D 4L
Away record	3W 5D 3L	1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Juventud to win	42%	2.36	2.05	-13.2%
A Draw	28%	3.60	3.20	-11.0%
Danubio to win	25%	4.07	3.45	-15.3%
Over 2.5 goals	39%	2.59	2.20	-15.1%
Under 2.5 goals	59%	1.70	1.61	-5.3%
Juventud -0.5	44%	2.27	1.95	-14.0%
Danubio +0.5	53%	1.87	1.71	-8.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.47
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.46
Over 3.5 goals	20%	4.93
Both teams to score	47%	2.15
Juventud or Draw	74%	1.35
Danubio or Draw	55%	1.81
Juventud to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.30
Danubio to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.92
Juventud clean sheet	38%	2.62
Danubio clean sheet	26%	3.85

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

1-012.6%

0-010.7%

2-09.0%

0-18.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Juventud vs Danubio?

Our prediction for Juventud vs Danubio is Juventud to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Juventud vs Danubio?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Juventud to score 1.4 goals and Danubio 1.0.

Will both teams score in Juventud vs Danubio?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Juventud last 20 games and 8 of Danubio last 20.

How are Juventud playing?

How are Danubio playing?

What happened when Juventud and Danubio last met?

It ended Danubio 1, Juventud 1. In the last 2 meetings Juventud won 0 and Danubio won 1.

What is the best bet for Juventud vs Danubio?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Juventud against Danubio. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.