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Predictions › Uruguay › Juventud vs Peñarol
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSat 24 Oct, 19:00 Uruguay time

Juventud vs Peñarol prediction

Estadio Juventud Parque Artigas

JuventudHome
0.69 : 1.42
expected goals
PeñarolAway
17%Juventud
29%Draw
54%Peñarol
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Juventud vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Peñarol to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
Juventud 0.7, Peñarol 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-1
17% chanceFair price 6.061 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Juventud 17%, the draw 29% and Peñarol 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Juventud took 9 points from their last 5 games and Peñarol took 11 from 5. Peñarol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Juventud won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Peñarol won 5 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Juventud score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.0. Peñarol score 1.7 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Juventud games and 9 of Peñarol games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Juventud won 0 and Peñarol won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Peñarol 2, Juventud 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Juventudrecent form+1%
  • Peñarolrecent form+4%
Juventud form D D D W DPeñarol form D W D W WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Juventud vs Peñarol: Peñarol are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Juventud host Peñarol in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sat 24 Oct, 19:00 at Estadio Juventud Parque Artigas. Our prediction for Juventud vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Juventud form

Juventud have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, W, D, newest first.

Peñarol form

Peñarol have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Juventud won 0, Peñarol won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Peñarol 2, Juventud 2.

Our call

We expect Juventud to score about 0.7 goals and Peñarol about 1.4. That points to Peñarol to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-1 at 6.06.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

JuventudPeñarol
Games played2020
Wins812
Draws85
Losses43
Goals scored2534
Goals conceded2013
Scored per game1.31.7
Conceded per game1.00.7
Home record4W 3D 3L7W 2D 3L
Away record4W 5D 1L5W 3D 0L
Clean sheets40%35%
Both teams scored55%50%
Over 2.5 goals35%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.59
Over 2.5 goals35%2.84
Over 3.5 goals16%6.14
Both teams to score38%2.60
Juventud or Draw46%2.17
Peñarol or Draw83%1.21
Juventud to win and Over 2.57%14.50
Peñarol to win and Over 2.525%3.98
Juventud clean sheet24%4.13
Peñarol clean sheet50%1.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-116.5%
0-012.9%
1-112.6%
0-212.2%
1-28.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Juventud vs Peñarol?

Our prediction for Juventud vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Juventud vs Peñarol?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect Juventud to score 0.7 goals and Peñarol 1.4.

Will both teams score in Juventud vs Peñarol?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Juventud last 20 games and 10 of Peñarol last 20.

How are Juventud playing?

Juventud have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Peñarol playing?

Peñarol have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Juventud and Peñarol last met?

It ended Peñarol 2, Juventud 2. In the last 2 meetings Juventud won 0 and Peñarol won 1.

What is the best bet for Juventud vs Peñarol?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Juventud against Peñarol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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