Predictions › Uruguay › Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo)

Uruguayan Primera DivisionSat 10 Oct, 17:30 Uruguay time

Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo) prediction

Estadio Juventud Parque Artigas

JuventudHome

0.88 : 1.01

expected goals

Racing (Montevideo)Away

30%Juventud

33%Draw

37%Racing (M)

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo) is Racing (Montevideo) to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction: Racing (Montevideo) to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 0-0
Expected goals: Juventud 0.9, Racing (Montevideo) 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score: 38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0

16% chanceFair price 6.311 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Juventud 30%, the draw 33% and Racing (Montevideo) 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Juventud took 9 points from their last 5 games and Racing (Montevideo) took 7 from 5. Juventud come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Juventud won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Racing (Montevideo) won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Juventud score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. Racing (Montevideo) score 0.9 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Juventud games and 4 of Racing (Montevideo) games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Juventud won 0 and Racing (Montevideo) won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Racing (Montevideo) 2, Juventud 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Juventudrecent form+3%

Juventud form D W D D WRacing (M) form L D W L WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo): Racing (Montevideo) shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Juventud host Racing (Montevideo) in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 at Estadio Juventud Parque Artigas. Our prediction for Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo) is Racing (Montevideo) to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Juventud form

Juventud have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Racing (Montevideo) form

Racing (Montevideo) have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Juventud won 0, Racing (Montevideo) won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Racing (Montevideo) 2, Juventud 1.

Our call

We expect Juventud to score about 0.9 goals and Racing (Montevideo) about 1.0. That points to Racing (Montevideo) to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 6.31.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Juventud	Racing (M)
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	7
Draws	8	9
Losses	4	4
Goals scored	26	18
Goals conceded	22	15
Scored per game	1.3	0.9
Conceded per game	1.1	0.8
Home record	4W 3D 3L	5W 4D 0L
Away record	4W 5D 1L	2W 5D 4L
Clean sheets	35%	45%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	20%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	57%	1.75
Over 2.5 goals	29%	3.39
Over 3.5 goals	12%	8.04
Both teams to score	38%	2.62
Juventud or Draw	63%	1.58
Racing (Montevideo) or Draw	70%	1.42
Juventud to win and Over 2.5	12%	8.69
Racing (Montevideo) to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.81
Juventud clean sheet	36%	2.75
Racing (Montevideo) clean sheet	41%	2.42

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-015.8%

0-114.4%

1-114.2%

1-012.5%

0-27.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo)?

Our prediction for Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo) is Racing (Montevideo) to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo)?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-1. We expect Juventud to score 0.9 goals and Racing (Montevideo) 1.0.

Will both teams score in Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo)?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Juventud last 20 games and 8 of Racing (Montevideo) last 20.

How are Juventud playing?

How are Racing (Montevideo) playing?

What happened when Juventud and Racing (Montevideo) last met?

It ended Racing (Montevideo) 2, Juventud 1. In the last 2 meetings Juventud won 0 and Racing (Montevideo) won 1.

What is the best bet for Juventud vs Racing (Montevideo)?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Juventud against Racing (M). A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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