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Predictions › Conference League › KAA Gent vs AGF
Conference LeagueThu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC

KAA Gent vs AGF prediction

Ghelamco Arena

KAA GentHome
1.72 : 0.96
expected goals
AGFAway
54%KAA Gent
25%Draw
20%AGF
Eagle safe pickKAA Gent or Draw
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for KAA Gent vs AGF is KAA Gent to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is KAA Gent or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction
KAA Gent to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
KAA Gent 1.7, AGF 1.0
Best bet
KAA Gent or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

KAA Gent or Draw
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

KAA Gent to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.111 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives KAA Gent 54%, the draw 25% and AGF 20%. The bookmakers agree and make KAA Gent the favourite at 1.69.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    KAA Gent took 13 points from their last 5 games and AGF took 2 from 5. KAA Gent come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    KAA Gent won 5 of their last 11 games at home. AGF won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    KAA Gent score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.0. AGF score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of KAA Gent games and 11 of AGF games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    KAA Gent or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • KAA Gentrecent form+6%
  • AGFrecent form-4%
KAA Gent form W D W W WAGF form D L D L LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

KAA Gent vs AGF: KAA Gent are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

KAA Gent host AGF in the Conference League on Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 at Ghelamco Arena. Our prediction for KAA Gent vs AGF is KAA Gent to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is KAA Gent or Draw at 1.30.

KAA Gent form

KAA Gent have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

AGF form

AGF have 5 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect KAA Gent to score about 1.7 goals and AGF about 1.0. That points to KAA Gent to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is KAA Gent or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is KAA Gent to win and Over 2.5 at 3.11.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

KAA GentAGF
Games played2020
Wins85
Draws810
Losses45
Goals scored2329
Goals conceded2027
Scored per game1.11.4
Conceded per game1.01.4
Home record5W 5D 1L2W 6D 1L
Away record3W 3D 3L3W 4D 4L
Clean sheets35%15%
Both teams scored50%75%
Over 2.5 goals35%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
KAA Gent to win52%1.941.69-12.8%
A Draw25%4.043.90-3.4%
AGF to win20%4.994.50-9.9%
Over 2.5 goals48%2.101.83-12.7%
Under 2.5 goals47%2.131.87-12.3%
KAA Gent -0.553%1.901.63-14.6%
AGF +0.542%2.382.05-14.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.33
Over 2.5 goals50%2.00
Over 3.5 goals28%3.56
Both teams to score51%1.95
KAA Gent or Draw80%1.26
AGF or Draw46%2.19
KAA Gent to win and Over 2.533%3.01
AGF to win and Over 2.511%8.88
KAA Gent clean sheet38%2.62
AGF clean sheet18%5.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%
1-011.1%
2-010.1%
2-19.7%
0-07.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win KAA Gent vs AGF?

Our prediction for KAA Gent vs AGF is KAA Gent to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is KAA Gent or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for KAA Gent vs AGF?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect KAA Gent to score 1.7 goals and AGF 1.0.

Will both teams score in KAA Gent vs AGF?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of KAA Gent last 20 games and 15 of AGF last 20.

How are KAA Gent playing?

KAA Gent have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

How are AGF playing?

AGF have 5 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for KAA Gent vs AGF?

KAA Gent or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in KAA Gent against AGF. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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