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Predictions › Greece › Kalamata vs AEK Athens
Greek Super LeagueSat 21 Nov, 17:30 Greece time

Kalamata vs AEK Athens prediction

Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias

KalamataHome
1.03 : 2.25
expected goals
AEK AthensAway
16%Kalamata
20%Draw
64%AEK Athens
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Kalamata vs AEK Athens is AEK Athens to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction
AEK Athens to win
Chance
64%
Most likely score
1-2
Expected goals
Kalamata 1.0, AEK Athens 2.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AEK Athens to win and Over 2.5
44% chanceFair price 2.261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Kalamata 16%, the draw 20% and AEK Athens 64%. The bookmakers agree and make AEK Athens the favourite at 1.33.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Kalamata took 8 points from their last 5 games and AEK Athens took 6 from 5. Kalamata come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Kalamata won 2 of their last 5 games at home. AEK Athens won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Kalamata score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.9. AEK Athens score 1.9 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Kalamata games and 13 of AEK Athens games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Kalamatarecent form+1%
  • AEK Athensrecent form-1%
Kalamata form D D L W WAEK Athens form W L L W LHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Kalamata vs AEK Athens: AEK Athens are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Kalamata host AEK Athens in the Greek Super League on Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias. Our prediction for Kalamata vs AEK Athens is AEK Athens to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Kalamata form

Kalamata have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 10 games, with 15 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, W, newest first.

AEK Athens form

AEK Athens have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Kalamata to score about 1.0 goals and AEK Athens about 2.3. That points to AEK Athens to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is AEK Athens to win and Over 2.5 at 2.26.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

KalamataAEK Athens
Games played1020
Wins310
Draws35
Losses45
Goals scored1538
Goals conceded1924
Scored per game1.51.9
Conceded per game1.91.2
Home record2W 1D 2L9W 1D 1L
Away record1W 2D 2L1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets0%35%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Kalamata to win15%6.857.50+9.4%
A Draw19%5.185.25+1.3%
AEK Athens to win62%1.621.33-17.9%
Over 3.5 goals40%2.482.20-11.3%
Under 3.5 goals53%1.901.57-17.2%
Kalamata +1.549%2.031.74-14.3%
AEK Athens -1.544%2.281.87-18.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.57
Over 3.5 goals42%2.40
Both teams to score58%1.72
Kalamata or Draw36%2.81
AEK Athens or Draw84%1.18
Kalamata to win and Over 2.510%9.79
AEK Athens to win and Over 2.547%2.13
Kalamata clean sheet11%9.50
AEK Athens clean sheet36%2.81

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-29.8%
0-29.5%
1-19.2%
0-17.9%
1-37.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Kalamata vs AEK Athens?

Our prediction for Kalamata vs AEK Athens is AEK Athens to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Kalamata vs AEK Athens?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 0-2 and 1-1. We expect Kalamata to score 1.0 goals and AEK Athens 2.3.

Will both teams score in Kalamata vs AEK Athens?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Kalamata last 10 games and 11 of AEK Athens last 20.

How are Kalamata playing?

Kalamata have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 10 games, with 15 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are AEK Athens playing?

AEK Athens have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Kalamata vs AEK Athens?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Kalamata against AEK Athens. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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