Predictions › Japan › Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka

J1 LeagueFri 9 Oct, 10:00 Japan time

Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka prediction

Kashima Soccer Stadium

Kashima AntlersHome

1.67 : 0.80

expected goals

Gamba OsakaAway

57%Kashima

26%Draw

17%Gamba Osaka

Eagle safe pickKashima Antlers or Draw

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka is Kashima Antlers to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.24.

Prediction: Kashima Antlers to win
Chance: 57%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Kashima Antlers 1.7, Gamba Osaka 0.8
Best bet: Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.24
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Kashima Antlers or Draw

80% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Kashima Antlers to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 3.271 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Kashima Antlers 57%, the draw 26% and Gamba Osaka 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Kashima Antlers took 4 points from their last 5 games and Gamba Osaka took 2 from 5. Kashima Antlers come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Kashima Antlers won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Gamba Osaka won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Kashima Antlers score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Gamba Osaka score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Kashima Antlers games and 9 of Gamba Osaka games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Kashima Antlers won 0 and Gamba Osaka won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Kashima Antlers 0, Gamba Osaka 0.
6
The safest bet
Kashima Antlers or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Kashimarecent form-3%
Gamba Osakarecent form-3%

Kashima form D W L L LGamba Osaka form L W L L DHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka: Kashima Antlers are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Kashima Antlers host Gamba Osaka in the J1 League on Fri 9 Oct, 10:00 at Kashima Soccer Stadium. Our prediction for Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka is Kashima Antlers to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.24.

Kashima Antlers form

Kashima Antlers have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Gamba Osaka form

Gamba Osaka have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Kashima Antlers won 0, Gamba Osaka won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Kashima Antlers 0, Gamba Osaka 0.

Our call

We expect Kashima Antlers to score about 1.7 goals and Gamba Osaka about 0.8. That points to Kashima Antlers to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.24. Our bold bet is Kashima Antlers to win and Over 2.5 at 3.27.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Kashima	Gamba Osaka
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	5
Draws	4	7
Losses	5	8
Goals scored	33	28
Goals conceded	26	28
Scored per game	1.6	1.4
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	6W 1D 1L	3W 3D 5L
Away record	5W 3D 4L	2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	40%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.40
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.24
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.26
Both teams to score	45%	2.21
Kashima Antlers or Draw	83%	1.21
Gamba Osaka or Draw	43%	2.35
Kashima Antlers to win and Over 2.5	32%	3.12
Gamba Osaka to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.13
Kashima Antlers clean sheet	45%	2.22
Gamba Osaka clean sheet	19%	5.29

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.5%

1-112.0%

2-011.8%

2-19.4%

0-09.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka?

Our prediction for Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka is Kashima Antlers to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Kashima Antlers to score 1.7 goals and Gamba Osaka 0.8.

Will both teams score in Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Kashima Antlers last 20 games and 12 of Gamba Osaka last 20.

How are Kashima Antlers playing?

How are Gamba Osaka playing?

What happened when Kashima Antlers and Gamba Osaka last met?

It ended Kashima Antlers 0, Gamba Osaka 0. In the last 1 meeting Kashima Antlers won 0 and Gamba Osaka won 0.

What is the best bet for Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka?

Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Kashima against Gamba Osaka. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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