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Predictions › Japan › Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki
J1 LeagueSat 17 Oct, 06:00 Japan time

Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki prediction

Kashima Soccer Stadium

Kashima AntlersHome
1.82 : 0.71
expected goals
V-Varen NagasakiAway
63%Kashima
23%Draw
13%V-Varen
Eagle safe pickKashima Antlers or Draw
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki is Kashima Antlers to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction
Kashima Antlers to win
Chance
63%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Kashima Antlers 1.8, V-Varen Nagasaki 0.7
Best bet
Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Kashima Antlers or Draw
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Kashima Antlers to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price 2.881 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Kashima Antlers 63%, the draw 23% and V-Varen Nagasaki 13%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Kashima Antlers took 4 points from their last 5 games and V-Varen Nagasaki took 5 from 5. V-Varen Nagasaki come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Kashima Antlers won 6 of their last 8 games at home. V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Kashima Antlers score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. V-Varen Nagasaki score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Kashima Antlers games and 11 of V-Varen Nagasaki games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Kashima Antlers or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Kashimarecent form-3%
  • V-Varenrecent form-1%
Kashima form D W L L LV-Varen form D W L D LHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki: Kashima Antlers are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Kashima Antlers host V-Varen Nagasaki in the J1 League on Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 at Kashima Soccer Stadium. Our prediction for Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki is Kashima Antlers to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.19.

Kashima Antlers form

Kashima Antlers have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

V-Varen Nagasaki form

V-Varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Kashima Antlers to score about 1.8 goals and V-Varen Nagasaki about 0.7. That points to Kashima Antlers to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Kashima Antlers to win and Over 2.5 at 2.88.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

KashimaV-Varen
Games played2020
Wins116
Draws44
Losses510
Goals scored3322
Goals conceded2632
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game1.31.6
Home record6W 1D 1L4W 4D 3L
Away record5W 3D 4L2W 0D 7L
Clean sheets40%15%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.38
Over 2.5 goals47%2.15
Over 3.5 goals25%3.99
Both teams to score43%2.30
Kashima Antlers or Draw87%1.15
V-Varen Nagasaki or Draw37%2.72
Kashima Antlers to win and Over 2.536%2.75
V-Varen Nagasaki to win and Over 2.56%15.68
Kashima Antlers clean sheet49%2.04
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet16%6.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.8%
2-013.1%
1-110.9%
2-19.4%
0-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Our prediction for Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki is Kashima Antlers to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Kashima Antlers to score 1.8 goals and V-Varen Nagasaki 0.7.

Will both teams score in Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Kashima Antlers last 20 games and 11 of V-Varen Nagasaki last 20.

How are Kashima Antlers playing?

Kashima Antlers have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are V-Varen Nagasaki playing?

V-Varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Kashima Antlers or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Kashima against V-Varen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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