Predictions › Japan › Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama

J1 LeagueSun 25 Oct, 07:00 Japan time

Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama prediction

Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

Kawasaki FrontaleHome

1.89 : 1.95

expected goals

Fagiano OkayamaAway

38%Kawasaki

22%Draw

40%Okayama

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

1.35

Quick answer

Our prediction for Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.35.

Prediction: Fagiano Okayama to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 1.9, Fagiano Okayama 1.9
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.35
Both teams to score: 73%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

74% chanceFair price 1.351 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.291 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Kawasaki Frontale 38%, the draw 22% and Fagiano Okayama 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Kawasaki Frontale took 7 points from their last 5 games and Fagiano Okayama took 9 from 5. Fagiano Okayama come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Kawasaki Frontale won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Fagiano Okayama won 4 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Kawasaki Frontale score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Fagiano Okayama score 1.5 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Kawasaki Frontale games and 12 of Fagiano Okayama games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Kawasaki Frontale won 0 and Fagiano Okayama won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Kawasaki Frontale 1, Fagiano Okayama 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Kawasakirecent form+1%
Okayamarecent form+3%

Kawasaki form D D W W LOkayama form D L W W WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama: Fagiano Okayama shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Kawasaki Frontale host Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League on Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 at Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu. Our prediction for Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.35.

Kawasaki Frontale form

Kawasaki Frontale have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Fagiano Okayama form

Fagiano Okayama have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Kawasaki Frontale won 0, Fagiano Okayama won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Kawasaki Frontale 1, Fagiano Okayama 1.

Our call

We expect Kawasaki Frontale to score about 1.9 goals and Fagiano Okayama about 1.9. That points to Fagiano Okayama to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.35. Our bold bet is Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5 at 3.29.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Kawasaki	Okayama
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	9
Draws	5	4
Losses	8	7
Goals scored	27	30
Goals conceded	28	26
Scored per game	1.4	1.5
Conceded per game	1.4	1.3
Home record	4W 3D 3L	5W 2D 2L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	4W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	10%	35%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	90%	1.11
Over 2.5 goals	74%	1.36
Over 3.5 goals	53%	1.88
Both teams to score	73%	1.37
Kawasaki Frontale or Draw	60%	1.67
Fagiano Okayama or Draw	62%	1.61
Kawasaki Frontale to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.30
Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5	32%	3.10
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet	14%	6.99
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet	15%	6.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-18.4%

1-27.7%

2-17.5%

2-27.3%

1-35.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama?

Our prediction for Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.35.

What is the score prediction for Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Kawasaki Frontale to score 1.9 goals and Fagiano Okayama 1.9.

Will both teams score in Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama?

Both teams to score has a 73% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Kawasaki Frontale last 20 games and 13 of Fagiano Okayama last 20.

How are Kawasaki Frontale playing?

How are Fagiano Okayama playing?

What happened when Kawasaki Frontale and Fagiano Okayama last met?

It ended Kawasaki Frontale 1, Fagiano Okayama 1. In the last 1 meeting Kawasaki Frontale won 0 and Fagiano Okayama won 0.

What is the best bet for Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.35, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Kawasaki against Okayama. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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