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Predictions › Japan › Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus
J1 LeagueSun 11 Oct, 07:00 Japan time

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus prediction

Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

Kawasaki FrontaleHome
2.48 : 1.43
expected goals
Nagoya GrampusAway
60%Kawasaki
19%Draw
20%Nagoya
Eagle safe pickKawasaki Frontale or Draw
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus is Kawasaki Frontale to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Kawasaki Frontale or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction
Kawasaki Frontale to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Kawasaki Frontale 2.5, Nagoya Grampus 1.4
Best bet
Kawasaki Frontale or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score
70%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Kawasaki Frontale or Draw
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Kawasaki Frontale to win and both score
36% chanceFair price 2.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Kawasaki Frontale 60%, the draw 19% and Nagoya Grampus 20%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Kawasaki Frontale took 10 points from their last 5 games and Nagoya Grampus took 3 from 5. Kawasaki Frontale come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Kawasaki Frontale won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Nagoya Grampus won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Kawasaki Frontale score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Kawasaki Frontale games and 15 of Nagoya Grampus games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Kawasaki Frontale or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Kawasakirecent form+3%
  • Nagoyarecent form-4%
Kawasaki form D W W L WNagoya form L L L L WHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus: Kawasaki Frontale are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Kawasaki Frontale host Nagoya Grampus in the J1 League on Sun 11 Oct, 07:00 at Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu. Our prediction for Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus is Kawasaki Frontale to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Kawasaki Frontale or Draw at 1.29.

Kawasaki Frontale form

Kawasaki Frontale have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Nagoya Grampus form

Nagoya Grampus have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Kawasaki Frontale to score about 2.5 goals and Nagoya Grampus about 1.4. That points to Kawasaki Frontale to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Kawasaki Frontale or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is Kawasaki Frontale to win and both score at 2.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

KawasakiNagoya
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws53
Losses710
Goals scored2930
Goals conceded2836
Scored per game1.41.5
Conceded per game1.41.8
Home record5W 3D 2L5W 3D 2L
Away record3W 2D 5L2W 0D 8L
Clean sheets10%15%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals50%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals91%1.10
Over 2.5 goals75%1.34
Over 3.5 goals55%1.83
Both teams to score70%1.43
Kawasaki Frontale or Draw80%1.26
Nagoya Grampus or Draw40%2.51
Kawasaki Frontale to win and Over 2.549%2.02
Nagoya Grampus to win and Over 2.516%6.26
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet24%4.16
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet8%11.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-18.8%
1-17.5%
3-17.3%
2-26.3%
2-06.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus?

Our prediction for Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus is Kawasaki Frontale to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Kawasaki Frontale or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 3-1. We expect Kawasaki Frontale to score 2.5 goals and Nagoya Grampus 1.4.

Will both teams score in Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus?

Both teams to score has a 70% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Kawasaki Frontale last 20 games and 13 of Nagoya Grampus last 20.

How are Kawasaki Frontale playing?

Kawasaki Frontale have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Nagoya Grampus playing?

Nagoya Grampus have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus?

Kawasaki Frontale or Draw at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Kawasaki against Nagoya. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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