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Predictions › United Kingdom › Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
Scottish PremiershipSat 17 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction

The BBSP Stadium

KilmarnockHome
1.30 : 1.82
expected goals
MotherwellAway
27%Kilmarnock
24%Draw
49%Motherwell
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell is Motherwell to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Motherwell to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Kilmarnock 1.3, Motherwell 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Motherwell to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Kilmarnock 27%, the draw 24% and Motherwell 49%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Kilmarnock took 5 points from their last 5 games and Motherwell took 4 from 5. Kilmarnock come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Kilmarnock won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Motherwell won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Kilmarnock score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.8. Motherwell score 1.5 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Kilmarnock games and 12 of Motherwell games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Kilmarnock won 0 and Motherwell won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Motherwell 4, Kilmarnock 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Kilmarnockrecent form-1%
  • Motherwellrecent form-3%
Kilmarnock form D W L D LMotherwell form L L L W DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: Motherwell are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Kilmarnock host Motherwell in the Scottish Premiership on Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 at The BBSP Stadium. Our prediction for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell is Motherwell to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Kilmarnock form

Kilmarnock have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Motherwell form

Motherwell have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Kilmarnock won 0, Motherwell won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Motherwell 4, Kilmarnock 0.

Our call

We expect Kilmarnock to score about 1.3 goals and Motherwell about 1.8. That points to Motherwell to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Motherwell to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

KilmarnockMotherwell
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws44
Losses89
Goals scored3230
Goals conceded3529
Scored per game1.61.5
Conceded per game1.81.4
Home record5W 2D 4L3W 3D 3L
Away record3W 2D 4L4W 1D 6L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%2/9
Over 2.5 goals60%4/6
Over 3.5 goals38%13/8
Both teams to score62%8/13
Kilmarnock or Draw51%Evens
Motherwell or Draw73%4/11
Kilmarnock to win and Over 2.518%9/2
Motherwell to win and Over 2.534%15/8
Kilmarnock clean sheet16%5/1
Motherwell clean sheet27%11/4

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%
1-29.5%
0-17.4%
0-27.3%
2-16.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

Our prediction for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell is Motherwell to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Kilmarnock to score 1.3 goals and Motherwell 1.8.

Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Kilmarnock last 20 games and 10 of Motherwell last 20.

How are Kilmarnock playing?

Kilmarnock have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Motherwell playing?

Motherwell have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Kilmarnock and Motherwell last met?

It ended Motherwell 4, Kilmarnock 0. In the last 2 meetings Kilmarnock won 0 and Motherwell won 2.

What is the best bet for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Kilmarnock against Motherwell. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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