Predictions › Belgium › KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise

Belgian Pro LeagueSun 22 Nov, 15:00 Belgium time

KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise prediction

Guldensporenstadion

KV KortrijkHome

0.84 : 2.26

expected goals

Union St.-GilloiseAway

12%KV Kortrijk

19%Draw

69%Union SG

Eagle safe pickUnion St.-Gilloise to win

1.36

Quick answer

Our prediction for KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.36.

Prediction: Union St.-Gilloise to win
Chance: 69%
Most likely score: 0-2
Expected goals: KV Kortrijk 0.8, Union St.-Gilloise 2.3
Best bet: Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.36
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Union St.-Gilloise to win

69% chancePrice 1.361 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.5

45% chanceFair price 2.231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives KV Kortrijk 12%, the draw 19% and Union St.-Gilloise 69%. The bookmakers agree and make Union St.-Gilloise the favourite at 1.36.
2
Recent form
KV Kortrijk took 4 points from their last 5 games and Union St.-Gilloise took 15 from 5. Union St.-Gilloise come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
KV Kortrijk won 1 of their last 5 games at home. Union St.-Gilloise won 7 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
KV Kortrijk score 0.4 goals a game and let in 2.1. Union St.-Gilloise score 2.5 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of KV Kortrijk games and 14 of Union St.-Gilloise games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Union St.-Gilloise to win has a 69% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

KV Kortrijkrecent form-1%
Union SGrecent form+7%

KV Kortrijk form D L D L WUnion SG form W W W W WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise: Union St.-Gilloise are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

KV Kortrijk host Union St.-Gilloise in the Belgian Pro League on Sun 22 Nov, 15:00 at Guldensporenstadion. Our prediction for KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.36.

KV Kortrijk form

KV Kortrijk have 1 win, 1 draw and 9 losses in their last 11 games, with 4 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Union St.-Gilloise form

Union St.-Gilloise have 14 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect KV Kortrijk to score about 0.8 goals and Union St.-Gilloise about 2.3. That points to Union St.-Gilloise to win, with 0-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.36. Our bold bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.5 at 2.23.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	KV Kortrijk	Union SG
Games played	11	20
Wins	1	14
Draws	1	4
Losses	9	2
Goals scored	4	49
Goals conceded	23	17
Scored per game	0.4	2.5
Conceded per game	2.1	0.8
Home record	1W 0D 4L	7W 3D 0L
Away record	0W 1D 5L	7W 1D 2L
Clean sheets	9%	50%
Both teams scored	27%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
KV Kortrijk to win	11%	8.83	7.00	-20.8%
A Draw	18%	5.46	4.80	-12.1%
Union St.-Gilloise to win	69%	1.45	1.36	-5.8%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.87	1.56	-16.9%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	2.51	2.20	-12.4%
KV Kortrijk +1.5	50%	2.02	1.67	-17.3%
Union St.-Gilloise -1.5	44%	2.29	1.95	-14.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.67
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.67
Both teams to score	51%	1.94
KV Kortrijk or Draw	31%	3.21
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw	88%	1.14
KV Kortrijk to win and Over 2.5	7%	14.10
Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.5	48%	2.10
KV Kortrijk clean sheet	10%	9.56
Union St.-Gilloise clean sheet	43%	2.32

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-211.5%

0-19.7%

1-29.7%

1-19.1%

0-38.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Our prediction for KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.36.

What is the score prediction for KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise?

0-2 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect KV Kortrijk to score 0.8 goals and Union St.-Gilloise 2.3.

Will both teams score in KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 3 of KV Kortrijk last 11 games and 9 of Union St.-Gilloise last 20.

How are KV Kortrijk playing?

How are Union St.-Gilloise playing?

What is the best bet for KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.36, with a 69% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in KV Kortrijk against Union SG. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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