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Predictions › Belgium › KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense
Belgian Pro LeagueSun 11 Oct, 17:15 Belgium time

KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense prediction

AFAS Stadion

KV MechelenHome
1.23 : 1.74
expected goals
Sint-TruidenseAway
26%KV Mechelen
25%Draw
49%Sint-Truidense
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense is Sint-Truidense to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Sint-Truidense to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
KV Mechelen 1.2, Sint-Truidense 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sint-Truidense to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.181 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives KV Mechelen 26%, the draw 25% and Sint-Truidense 49%. The bookmakers agree and make Sint-Truidense the favourite at 2.05.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    KV Mechelen took 2 points from their last 5 games and Sint-Truidense took 6 from 5. Sint-Truidense come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    KV Mechelen won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Sint-Truidense won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    KV Mechelen score 0.8 goals a game and let in 2.3. Sint-Truidense score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of KV Mechelen games and 11 of Sint-Truidense games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, KV Mechelen won 0 and Sint-Truidense won 4 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sint-Truidense 3, KV Mechelen 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • KV Mechelenrecent form-4%
  • Sint-Truidenserecent form-1%
KV Mechelen form D L L D LSint-Truidense form L L W L WHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense: Sint-Truidense are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

KV Mechelen host Sint-Truidense in the Belgian Pro League on Sun 11 Oct, 17:15 at AFAS Stadion. Our prediction for KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense is Sint-Truidense to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

KV Mechelen form

KV Mechelen have 2 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 45 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Sint-Truidense form

Sint-Truidense have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. KV Mechelen won 0, Sint-Truidense won 4 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sint-Truidense 3, KV Mechelen 0.

Our call

We expect KV Mechelen to score about 1.2 goals and Sint-Truidense about 1.7. That points to Sint-Truidense to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Sint-Truidense to win and Over 2.5 at 3.18.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

KV MechelenSint-Truidense
Games played2020
Wins27
Draws64
Losses129
Goals scored1729
Goals conceded4528
Scored per game0.81.4
Conceded per game2.31.4
Home record2W 2D 5L5W 2D 4L
Away record0W 4D 7L2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
KV Mechelen to win26%3.883.30-14.9%
A Draw24%4.103.40-17.1%
Sint-Truidense to win46%2.182.05-6.2%
Over 2.5 goals54%1.871.61-14.1%
Under 2.5 goals41%2.462.10-14.7%
KV Mechelen +0.550%2.001.67-16.6%
Sint-Truidense -0.544%2.271.95-14.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals57%1.76
Over 3.5 goals35%2.89
Both teams to score59%1.70
KV Mechelen or Draw51%1.95
Sint-Truidense or Draw74%1.36
KV Mechelen to win and Over 2.517%5.93
Sint-Truidense to win and Over 2.533%3.06
KV Mechelen clean sheet18%5.69
Sint-Truidense clean sheet29%3.42

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%
1-29.6%
0-18.3%
0-27.8%
2-16.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense?

Our prediction for KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense is Sint-Truidense to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect KV Mechelen to score 1.2 goals and Sint-Truidense 1.7.

Will both teams score in KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of KV Mechelen last 20 games and 10 of Sint-Truidense last 20.

How are KV Mechelen playing?

KV Mechelen have 2 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 45 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Sint-Truidense playing?

Sint-Truidense have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when KV Mechelen and Sint-Truidense last met?

It ended Sint-Truidense 3, KV Mechelen 0. In the last 4 meetings KV Mechelen won 0 and Sint-Truidense won 4.

What is the best bet for KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in KV Mechelen against Sint-Truidense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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