Predictions › Japan › Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia

J1 LeagueSat 10 Oct, 10:00 Japan time

Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia prediction

Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Kyoto SangaHome

1.04 : 2.56

expected goals

Machida ZelviaAway

13%Kyoto Sanga

17%Draw

70%Machida Zelvia

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: Machida Zelvia to win
Chance: 70%
Most likely score: 1-2
Expected goals: Kyoto Sanga 1.0, Machida Zelvia 2.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Machida Zelvia to win and both score

35% chanceFair price 2.831 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Kyoto Sanga 13%, the draw 17% and Machida Zelvia 70%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Kyoto Sanga took 7 points from their last 5 games and Machida Zelvia took 8 from 5. Machida Zelvia come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Kyoto Sanga won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Machida Zelvia won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Kyoto Sanga score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.9. Machida Zelvia score 1.8 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Kyoto Sanga games and 10 of Machida Zelvia games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Kyoto Sanga won 0 and Machida Zelvia won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Kyoto Sanga 1, Machida Zelvia 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Kyoto Sangarecent form-3%
Machida Zelviarecent form+3%

Kyoto Sanga form W L L L DMachida Zelvia form L W D W WHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia: Machida Zelvia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Kyoto Sanga host Machida Zelvia in the J1 League on Sat 10 Oct, 10:00 at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera. Our prediction for Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Kyoto Sanga form

Kyoto Sanga have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Machida Zelvia form

Machida Zelvia have 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Kyoto Sanga won 0, Machida Zelvia won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Kyoto Sanga 1, Machida Zelvia 1.

Our call

We expect Kyoto Sanga to score about 1.0 goals and Machida Zelvia about 2.6. That points to Machida Zelvia to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Machida Zelvia to win and both score at 2.83.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Kyoto Sanga	Machida Zelvia
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	10
Draws	4	8
Losses	11	2
Goals scored	23	35
Goals conceded	39	20
Scored per game	1.1	1.8
Conceded per game	1.9	1.0
Home record	3W 1D 5L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	2W 3D 6L	4W 6D 0L
Clean sheets	10%	35%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	88%	1.14
Over 2.5 goals	70%	1.43
Over 3.5 goals	49%	2.06
Both teams to score	60%	1.66
Kyoto Sanga or Draw	30%	3.30
Machida Zelvia or Draw	87%	1.15
Kyoto Sanga to win and Over 2.5	9%	11.12
Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5	54%	1.84
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet	8%	12.95
Machida Zelvia clean sheet	35%	2.84

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-29.3%

0-28.9%

1-37.9%

1-17.7%

0-37.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia?

Our prediction for Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 0-2 and 1-3. We expect Kyoto Sanga to score 1.0 goals and Machida Zelvia 2.6.

Will both teams score in Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Kyoto Sanga last 20 games and 12 of Machida Zelvia last 20.

How are Kyoto Sanga playing?

How are Machida Zelvia playing?

What happened when Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia last met?

It ended Kyoto Sanga 1, Machida Zelvia 1. In the last 1 meeting Kyoto Sanga won 0 and Machida Zelvia won 0.

What is the best bet for Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Kyoto Sanga against Machida Zelvia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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