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Predictions › Chile › La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion
Chilean Primera DivisionSat 24 Oct, 15:30 Chile time

La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion prediction

Estadio La Portada

La SerenaHome
1.18 : 1.24
expected goals
Deportes ConcepcionAway
34%La Serena
29%Draw
37%Concepcion
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion is Deportes Concepcion to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Deportes Concepcion to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
La Serena 1.2, Deportes Concepcion 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives La Serena 34%, the draw 29% and Deportes Concepcion 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    La Serena took 7 points from their last 5 games and Deportes Concepcion took 6 from 5. La Serena come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    La Serena won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Deportes Concepcion won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    La Serena score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.8. Deportes Concepcion score 1.1 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of La Serena games and 5 of Deportes Concepcion games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, La Serena won 0 and Deportes Concepcion won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Deportes Concepcion 3, La Serena 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • La Serenarecent form+1%
  • Concepcionrest between games-2%
La Serena form D L W W DConcepcion form D L L W WHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion: Deportes Concepcion shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

La Serena host Deportes Concepcion in the Chilean Primera Division on Sat 24 Oct, 15:30 at Estadio La Portada. Our prediction for La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion is Deportes Concepcion to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

La Serena form

La Serena have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Deportes Concepcion form

Deportes Concepcion have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. La Serena won 0, Deportes Concepcion won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Deportes Concepcion 3, La Serena 3.

Our call

We expect La Serena to score about 1.2 goals and Deportes Concepcion about 1.2. That points to Deportes Concepcion to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

La SerenaConcepcion
Games played2020
Wins79
Draws74
Losses67
Goals scored3323
Goals conceded3620
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game1.81.0
Home record4W 2D 3L5W 3D 4L
Away record3W 5D 3L4W 1D 3L
Clean sheets30%40%
Both teams scored60%30%
Over 2.5 goals65%25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.30
Over 3.5 goals23%4.44
Both teams to score50%2.00
La Serena or Draw63%1.58
Deportes Concepcion or Draw66%1.52
La Serena to win and Over 2.518%5.49
Deportes Concepcion to win and Over 2.520%5.07
La Serena clean sheet29%3.44
Deportes Concepcion clean sheet31%3.27

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
0-110.2%
1-09.7%
0-09.7%
1-28.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion?

Our prediction for La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion is Deportes Concepcion to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect La Serena to score 1.2 goals and Deportes Concepcion 1.2.

Will both teams score in La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of La Serena last 20 games and 6 of Deportes Concepcion last 20.

How are La Serena playing?

La Serena have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Deportes Concepcion playing?

Deportes Concepcion have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when La Serena and Deportes Concepcion last met?

It ended Deportes Concepcion 3, La Serena 3. In the last 1 meeting La Serena won 0 and Deportes Concepcion won 0.

What is the best bet for La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in La Serena against Concepcion. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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