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Predictions › Chile › La Serena vs Palestino
Chilean Primera DivisionSun 8 Nov, 20:00 Chile time

La Serena vs Palestino prediction

Estadio La Portada

La SerenaHome
1.68 : 1.34
expected goals
PalestinoAway
45%La Serena
25%Draw
30%Palestino
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for La Serena vs Palestino is La Serena to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
La Serena to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
La Serena 1.7, Palestino 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

La Serena to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.371 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives La Serena 45%, the draw 25% and Palestino 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    La Serena took 9 points from their last 5 games and Palestino took 5 from 5. La Serena come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    La Serena won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Palestino won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    La Serena score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.9. Palestino score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of La Serena games and 11 of Palestino games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, La Serena won 0 and Palestino won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Palestino 5, La Serena 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Palestinorecent form-1%
La Serena form D L L W WPalestino form D D L W LHome edge in this league 30% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

La Serena vs Palestino: La Serena shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

La Serena host Palestino in the Chilean Primera Division on Sun 8 Nov, 20:00 at Estadio La Portada. Our prediction for La Serena vs Palestino is La Serena to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

La Serena form

La Serena have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Palestino form

Palestino have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. La Serena won 0, Palestino won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Palestino 5, La Serena 1.

Our call

We expect La Serena to score about 1.7 goals and Palestino about 1.3. That points to La Serena to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is La Serena to win and Over 2.5 at 3.37.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

La SerenaPalestino
Games played2020
Wins710
Draws73
Losses67
Goals scored3532
Goals conceded3728
Scored per game1.81.6
Conceded per game1.91.4
Home record5W 2D 3L6W 2D 2L
Away record2W 5D 3L4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored65%60%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals58%1.72
Over 3.5 goals36%2.81
Both teams to score61%1.65
La Serena or Draw70%1.43
Palestino or Draw55%1.81
La Serena to win and Over 2.530%3.30
Palestino to win and Over 2.520%5.06
La Serena clean sheet26%3.82
Palestino clean sheet19%5.34

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%
2-19.2%
1-07.6%
1-27.4%
2-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win La Serena vs Palestino?

Our prediction for La Serena vs Palestino is La Serena to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for La Serena vs Palestino?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect La Serena to score 1.7 goals and Palestino 1.3.

Will both teams score in La Serena vs Palestino?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of La Serena last 20 games and 12 of Palestino last 20.

How are La Serena playing?

La Serena have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Palestino playing?

Palestino have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when La Serena and Palestino last met?

It ended Palestino 5, La Serena 1. In the last 2 meetings La Serena won 0 and Palestino won 2.

What is the best bet for La Serena vs Palestino?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in La Serena against Palestino. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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