Quick answer
Our prediction for La Serena vs Universidad de Chile is Universidad de Chile to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.
- Prediction
- Universidad de Chile to win
- Chance
- 46%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
- Expected goals
- La Serena 1.2, Universidad de Chile 1.6
- Best bet
- Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡ Eagle bold pick
La Serena to win
26% chancePrice 3.95+1.7% value1 unit
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives La Serena 27%, the draw 26% and Universidad de Chile 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Universidad de Chile the favourite at 1.87.
- 2
Recent formLa Serena took 11 points from their last 5 games and Universidad de Chile took 9 from 5. La Serena come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayLa Serena won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Universidad de Chile won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
- 4
GoalsLa Serena score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Universidad de Chile score 1.6 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of La Serena games and 10 of Universidad de Chile games in that run.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 2 meetings, La Serena won 0 and Universidad de Chile won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Universidad de Chile 4, La Serena 0.
- 6
The safest betOver 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.- La Serenarecent form+4%
- U de Chilerecent form+1%
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewLa Serena vs Universidad de Chile: Universidad de Chile are favourites
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
La Serena host Universidad de Chile in the Chilean Primera Division on Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 at Estadio La Portada. Our prediction for La Serena vs Universidad de Chile is Universidad de Chile to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.
La Serena form
La Serena have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.
Universidad de Chile form
Universidad de Chile have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 2 times in our records. La Serena won 0, Universidad de Chile won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Universidad de Chile 4, La Serena 0.
Our call
We expect La Serena to score about 1.2 goals and Universidad de Chile about 1.6. That points to Universidad de Chile to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is La Serena to win at 3.95.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 20 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against DraftKings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Goals and other markets
Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.
Most likely scores
1-112.5%
0-19.5%
1-29.4%
0-28.1%
0-07.2%
Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.
Questions people ask
Who will win La Serena vs Universidad de Chile?
Our prediction for La Serena vs Universidad de Chile is Universidad de Chile to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.
What is the score prediction for La Serena vs Universidad de Chile?
1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect La Serena to score 1.2 goals and Universidad de Chile 1.6.
Will both teams score in La Serena vs Universidad de Chile?
Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of La Serena last 20 games and 10 of Universidad de Chile last 20.
How are La Serena playing?
La Serena have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.
How are Universidad de Chile playing?
Universidad de Chile have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.
What happened when La Serena and Universidad de Chile last met?
It ended Universidad de Chile 4, La Serena 0. In the last 2 meetings La Serena won 0 and Universidad de Chile won 1.
What is the best bet for La Serena vs Universidad de Chile?
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 78% chance.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in La Serena against U de Chile. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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