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Predictions › United States › LAFC vs Austin FC
MLSWed 14 Oct, 22:30 United States time

LAFC vs Austin FC prediction

BMO Stadium

LAFCHome
2.01 : 0.84
expected goals
Austin FCAway
64%LAFC
22%Draw
14%Austin
Eagle safe pickLAFC or Draw
-498

Quick answer

Our prediction for LAFC vs Austin FC is LAFC to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is LAFC or Draw at -498.

Prediction
LAFC to win
Chance
64%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
LAFC 2.0, Austin FC 0.8
Best bet
LAFC or Draw at -498
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

LAFC or Draw
83% chanceFair price -4982 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

LAFC to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price +1581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives LAFC 64%, the draw 22% and Austin FC 14%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    LAFC took 5 points from their last 5 games and Austin FC took 7 from 5. Austin FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    LAFC won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Austin FC won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    LAFC score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Austin FC score 1.4 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of LAFC games and 13 of Austin FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, LAFC won 2 and Austin FC won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Austin FC 0, LAFC 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    LAFC or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • LAFCrecent form-1%
  • Austinrecent form+1%
LAFC form L D L W DAustin form D D W D DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

LAFC vs Austin FC: LAFC are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

LAFC host Austin FC in the MLS on Wed 14 Oct, 22:30 at BMO Stadium. Our prediction for LAFC vs Austin FC is LAFC to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is LAFC or Draw at -498.

LAFC form

LAFC have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Austin FC form

Austin FC have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. LAFC won 2, Austin FC won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Austin FC 0, LAFC 0.

Our call

We expect LAFC to score about 2.0 goals and Austin FC about 0.8. That points to LAFC to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is LAFC or Draw at -498. Our bold bet is LAFC to win and Over 2.5 at +158.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LAFCAustin
Games played2020
Wins66
Draws67
Losses87
Goals scored2827
Goals conceded2936
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.41.8
Home record5W 1D 2L3W 4D 2L
Away record1W 5D 6L3W 3D 5L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored55%65%
Over 2.5 goals60%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%-362
Over 2.5 goals54%-119
Over 3.5 goals32%+213
Both teams to score50%+101
LAFC or Draw86%-606
Austin FC or Draw36%+179
LAFC to win and Over 2.541%+141
Austin FC to win and Over 2.58%+1169
LAFC clean sheet43%+131
Austin FC clean sheet13%+649

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.7%
1-011.0%
1-110.3%
2-19.8%
3-07.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win LAFC vs Austin FC?

Our prediction for LAFC vs Austin FC is LAFC to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is LAFC or Draw at -498.

What is the score prediction for LAFC vs Austin FC?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect LAFC to score 2.0 goals and Austin FC 0.8.

Will both teams score in LAFC vs Austin FC?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of LAFC last 20 games and 13 of Austin FC last 20.

How are LAFC playing?

LAFC have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Austin FC playing?

Austin FC have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when LAFC and Austin FC last met?

It ended Austin FC 0, LAFC 0. In the last 4 meetings LAFC won 2 and Austin FC won 1.

What is the best bet for LAFC vs Austin FC?

LAFC or Draw at -498, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in LAFC against Austin. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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