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Predictions › Argentina › Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield
Argentina Liga ProfesionalMon 12 Oct, 19:00 Argentina time

Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield prediction

Ciudad de Lanús

LanúsHome
1.05 : 1.07
expected goals
Vélez SarsfieldAway
34%Lanús
31%Draw
35%Vélez
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Vélez Sarsfield to win
Chance
35%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lanús 1.1, Vélez Sarsfield 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.001 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lanús 34%, the draw 31% and Vélez Sarsfield 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lanús took 10 points from their last 5 games and Vélez Sarsfield took 9 from 5. Lanús come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lanús won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Vélez Sarsfield won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lanús score 0.8 goals a game and let in 0.9. Vélez Sarsfield score 1.3 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Lanús games and 5 of Vélez Sarsfield games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Lanús won 1 and Vélez Sarsfield won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vélez Sarsfield 0, Lanús 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lanús recent form+3%
  • Vélez recent form+1%
Lanús form W W W L DVélez form W D W L DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield: Vélez Sarsfield shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lanús host Vélez Sarsfield in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Mon 12 Oct, 19:00 at Ciudad de Lanús. Our prediction for Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Lanús form

Lanús have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Vélez Sarsfield form

Vélez Sarsfield have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Lanús won 1, Vélez Sarsfield won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Vélez Sarsfield 0, Lanús 1.

Our call

We expect Lanús to score about 1.1 goals and Vélez Sarsfield about 1.1. That points to Vélez Sarsfield to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Lanús Vélez
Games played2020
Wins98
Draws39
Losses83
Goals scored1725
Goals conceded1818
Scored per game0.81.3
Conceded per game0.90.9
Home record7W 3D 2L5W 3D 2L
Away record2W 0D 6L3W 6D 1L
Clean sheets50%35%
Both teams scored20%55%
Over 2.5 goals30%25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.58
Over 2.5 goals36%2.81
Over 3.5 goals17%6.05
Both teams to score44%2.30
Lanús or Draw65%1.54
Vélez Sarsfield or Draw66%1.51
Lanús to win and Over 2.515%6.53
Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.516%6.27
Lanús clean sheet34%2.92
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet35%2.85

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%
0-012.8%
0-112.1%
1-011.8%
1-27.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield?

Our prediction for Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 0-1. We expect Lanús to score 1.1 goals and Vélez Sarsfield 1.1.

Will both teams score in Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 4 of Lanús last 20 games and 11 of Vélez Sarsfield last 20.

How are Lanús playing?

Lanús have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Vélez Sarsfield playing?

Vélez Sarsfield have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Lanús and Vélez Sarsfield last met?

It ended Vélez Sarsfield 0, Lanús 1. In the last 1 meeting Lanús won 1 and Vélez Sarsfield won 0.

What is the best bet for Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lanús against Vélez . A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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