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Predictions › Spain › Las Palmas vs Burgos
LaLiga 2Sun 20 Sept, 16:30 Spain time

Las Palmas vs Burgos prediction

Estadio Gran Canaria

Las PalmasHome
0.98 : 0.60
expected goals
BurgosAway
43%Las Palmas
36%Draw
21%Burgos
Eagle safe pickUnder 2.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Las Palmas vs Burgos is Las Palmas to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Las Palmas to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Las Palmas 1.0, Burgos 0.6
Best bet
Under 2.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
29%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 2.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0
21% chanceFair price 4.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Las Palmas 43%, the draw 36% and Burgos 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Las Palmas took 10 points from their last 5 games and Burgos took 8 from 5. Las Palmas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Las Palmas won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Burgos won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Las Palmas score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Burgos score 1.4 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Las Palmas games and 6 of Burgos games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Las Palmas won 0 and Burgos won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Las Palmas 0, Burgos 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 2.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Las Palmasrecent form+3%
  • Burgosrecent form+1%
  • Las Palmasrest between games-5%
  • Burgosrest between games-5%
Las Palmas form W D L W WBurgos form W D D L WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Las Palmas vs Burgos: Las Palmas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Las Palmas host Burgos in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 20 Sept, 16:30 at Estadio Gran Canaria. Our prediction for Las Palmas vs Burgos is Las Palmas to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.25.

Las Palmas form

Las Palmas have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Burgos form

Burgos have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Las Palmas won 0, Burgos won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Las Palmas 0, Burgos 0.

Our call

We expect Las Palmas to score about 1.0 goals and Burgos about 0.6. That points to Las Palmas to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 4.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Las PalmasBurgos
Games played2020
Wins1111
Draws37
Losses62
Goals scored2727
Goals conceded2613
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.30.7
Home record6W 2D 1L6W 4D 0L
Away record5W 1D 5L5W 3D 2L
Clean sheets30%60%
Both teams scored60%35%
Over 2.5 goals50%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals47%2.11
Over 2.5 goals21%4.76
Over 3.5 goals8%13.29
Both teams to score29%3.48
Las Palmas or Draw79%1.27
Burgos or Draw57%1.75
Las Palmas to win and Over 2.513%7.46
Burgos to win and Over 2.56%17.49
Las Palmas clean sheet55%1.81
Burgos clean sheet38%2.66

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-021.4%
1-019.5%
1-112.8%
0-111.6%
2-09.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Las Palmas vs Burgos?

Our prediction for Las Palmas vs Burgos is Las Palmas to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Las Palmas vs Burgos?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Las Palmas to score 1.0 goals and Burgos 0.6.

Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Burgos?

Both teams to score has a 29% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Las Palmas last 20 games and 7 of Burgos last 20.

How are Las Palmas playing?

Las Palmas have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Burgos playing?

Burgos have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Las Palmas and Burgos last met?

It ended Las Palmas 0, Burgos 0. In the last 1 meeting Las Palmas won 0 and Burgos won 0.

What is the best bet for Las Palmas vs Burgos?

Under 2.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Las Palmas against Burgos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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