Predictions › Spain › Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid

LaLiga 2Sun 4 Oct, 16:30 Spain time

Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid prediction

Estadio Gran Canaria

Las PalmasHome

1.44 : 0.94

expected goals

Real ValladolidAway

48%Las Palmas

28%Draw

24%Valladolid

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid is Las Palmas to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Las Palmas to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Las Palmas 1.4, Real Valladolid 0.9
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.521 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Las Palmas 48%, the draw 28% and Real Valladolid 24%. The bookmakers agree and make Las Palmas the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Las Palmas took 4 points from their last 5 games and Real Valladolid took 8 from 5. Real Valladolid come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Las Palmas won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Real Valladolid won 0 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Las Palmas score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Real Valladolid score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Las Palmas games and 7 of Real Valladolid games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Las Palmas won 2 and Real Valladolid won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Las Palmas 2, Real Valladolid 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Las Palmasrecent form-3%
Valladolidrecent form+1%
Las Palmasrest between games-5%
Valladolidrest between games-5%

Las Palmas form L L W D LValladolid form W D L W DHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid: Las Palmas are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Las Palmas host Real Valladolid in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 4 Oct, 16:30 at Estadio Gran Canaria. Our prediction for Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid is Las Palmas to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Las Palmas form

Las Palmas have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Real Valladolid form

Real Valladolid have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Las Palmas won 2, Real Valladolid won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Las Palmas 2, Real Valladolid 1.

Our call

We expect Las Palmas to score about 1.4 goals and Real Valladolid about 0.9. That points to Las Palmas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.52.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Las Palmas	Valladolid
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	6
Draws	3	3
Losses	7	11
Goals scored	28	18
Goals conceded	29	25
Scored per game	1.4	0.9
Conceded per game	1.4	1.3
Home record	5W 2D 2L	6W 1D 3L
Away record	5W 1D 5L	0W 2D 8L
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Both teams scored	65%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Las Palmas to win	45%	2.24	2.15	-4.0%
A Draw	27%	3.68	3.15	-14.5%
Real Valladolid to win	23%	4.29	3.35	-21.8%
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.38	2.00	-16.1%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.71	-11.2%
Las Palmas -0.5	42%	2.37	2.05	-13.6%
Real Valladolid +0.5	52%	1.94	1.63	-16.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	70%	1.44
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.35
Over 3.5 goals	22%	4.59
Both teams to score	47%	2.11
Las Palmas or Draw	76%	1.32
Real Valladolid or Draw	52%	1.91
Las Palmas to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.89
Real Valladolid to win and Over 2.5	12%	8.39
Las Palmas clean sheet	39%	2.57
Real Valladolid clean sheet	24%	4.21

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

1-012.5%

0-010.0%

2-09.5%

2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid?

Our prediction for Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid is Las Palmas to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Las Palmas to score 1.4 goals and Real Valladolid 0.9.

Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Las Palmas last 20 games and 7 of Real Valladolid last 20.

How are Las Palmas playing?

How are Real Valladolid playing?

What happened when Las Palmas and Real Valladolid last met?

It ended Las Palmas 2, Real Valladolid 1. In the last 2 meetings Las Palmas won 2 and Real Valladolid won 0.

What is the best bet for Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Las Palmas against Valladolid. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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