Predictions › United States › Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

NFLSun 11 Oct, 13:00 United States time

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots prediction

Gillette Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersAway

19.3 : 24.2

projected points

New England PatriotsHome

38%Raiders

62%Patriots

Eagle safe pickPatriots to win

-192

Quick answer

Our prediction for Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots is New England Patriots to win, with a 62% chance. We project Las Vegas Raiders 19.3 and New England Patriots 24.2. Our best bet is Patriots to win at -192.

Prediction: New England Patriots to win
Chance: 62%
Projected score: Las Vegas Raiders 19, New England Patriots 24
Projected total: 43.5 points
Best bet: Patriots to win at -192

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Patriots to win

62% chancePrice -1921 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives New England Patriots 62% and Las Vegas Raiders 38%. The bookmakers agree and make New England Patriots the favourite at -192.
2
Recent form
New England Patriots won 2 of their last 5 and Las Vegas Raiders won 4 of their last 5. Las Vegas Raiders come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
New England Patriots won 9 of their last 12 games at home. Las Vegas Raiders won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Scoring
New England Patriots score 23.1 points a game and let in 18.2. Las Vegas Raiders score 16.2 and let in 23.9. Their recent games average 41.3 and 40.0 points in total, and the market line is 44.5.
5
The safest bet
Patriots to win has a 62% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots: New England Patriots are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New England Patriots host Las Vegas Raiders in the NFL on Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 at Gillette Stadium. Our prediction for Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots is New England Patriots to win, with a 62% chance. We project Las Vegas Raiders 19.3 and New England Patriots 24.2. Our best bet is Patriots to win at -192.

New England Patriots form

New England Patriots have 14 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 462 points scored and 364 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Las Vegas Raiders form

Las Vegas Raiders have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 324 points scored and 477 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Las Vegas Raiders to score about 19.3 points and New England Patriots about 24.2. That points to New England Patriots to win. Our safest bet is Patriots to win at -192.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Patriots	Raiders
Games played	20	20
Wins	14	6
Losses	5	14
Points scored	462	324
Points conceded	364	477
Scored per game	23.1	16.2
Conceded per game	18.2	23.9
Home record	9W 2L	3W 8L
Away record	5W 3L	3W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Patriots to win	62%	-165	-192	-5.3%
Raiders to win	35%	+189	+160	-9.9%
Patriots -3.5	51%	-104	-115	-4.6%
Raiders +3.5	43%	+132	-105	-15.9%
Over 44.5 points	44%	+126	-105	-13.8%
Under 44.5 points	50%	+100	-115	-6.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Patriots spread	Covers	Fair
Patriots -11.5	31%	+220
Patriots -7.5	42%	+136
Patriots -4.5	51%	-105
Patriots -1.5	60%	-150
Patriots +2.5	71%	-243

Total points	Over	Under
36.5	71%	29%
40.5	59%	41%
43.5	50%	50%
46.5	41%	59%
50.5	30%	70%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Patriots +3.5 wins if Patriots win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news

NFL

Drake Maye Vows to Turn Things Around After Patriots Blowout Loss to Jaguars

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye took responsibility for his three turnovers in a heavy 35-6 loss to the Jaguars, calling his play unacceptable.

27 Sept 2026

NFL

Patriots Target Halftime Clock Issues Before Tough Road Tests

New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye are working to fix critical clock management mistakes before halftime.

24 Sept 2026

NFL

Veteran Kirk Cousins Has the Las Vegas Raiders Flying High at 2-0

Kirk Cousins has thrown six touchdowns in two games, leading the Las Vegas Raiders to their first 2-0 start since 2021.

21 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots?

What is the projected score for Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots?

We project Las Vegas Raiders 19.3 and New England Patriots 24.2, about 43.5 points in total.

How are New England Patriots playing?

How are Las Vegas Raiders playing?

What is the best bet for Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots?

Patriots to win at -192, with a 62% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Patriots against Raiders. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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