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Predictions › Italy › Lazio vs Cagliari
Serie ASun 1 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Lazio vs Cagliari prediction

Olimpico

LazioHome
1.61 : 1.11
expected goals
CagliariAway
48%Lazio
26%Draw
26%Cagliari
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lazio vs Cagliari is Lazio to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Lazio to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lazio 1.6, Cagliari 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lazio to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lazio 48%, the draw 26% and Cagliari 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lazio took 13 points from their last 5 games and Cagliari took 10 from 5. Lazio come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lazio won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Cagliari won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lazio score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.9. Cagliari score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Lazio games and 9 of Cagliari games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Lazio won 1 and Cagliari won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Cagliari 0, Lazio 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Laziorecent form+4%
  • Cagliarirecent form+4%
Lazio form D W W D WCagliari form D D W W WHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lazio vs Cagliari: Lazio are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lazio host Cagliari in the Serie A on Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 at Olimpico. Our prediction for Lazio vs Cagliari is Lazio to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Lazio form

Lazio have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Cagliari form

Cagliari have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lazio won 1, Cagliari won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Cagliari 0, Lazio 0.

Our call

We expect Lazio to score about 1.6 goals and Cagliari about 1.1. That points to Lazio to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Lazio to win and Over 2.5 at 3.47.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LazioCagliari
Games played2020
Wins128
Draws44
Losses48
Goals scored2918
Goals conceded1925
Scored per game1.40.9
Conceded per game0.91.3
Home record5W 3D 1L4W 2D 4L
Away record7W 1D 3L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets40%30%
Both teams scored40%45%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.31
Over 2.5 goals51%1.95
Over 3.5 goals29%3.43
Both teams to score54%1.84
Lazio or Draw74%1.34
Cagliari or Draw52%1.93
Lazio to win and Over 2.530%3.35
Cagliari to win and Over 2.515%6.69
Lazio clean sheet33%3.05
Cagliari clean sheet20%5.02

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-09.8%
2-19.5%
2-08.5%
0-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?

Our prediction for Lazio vs Cagliari is Lazio to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Lazio vs Cagliari?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Lazio to score 1.6 goals and Cagliari 1.1.

Will both teams score in Lazio vs Cagliari?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Lazio last 20 games and 9 of Cagliari last 20.

How are Lazio playing?

Lazio have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Cagliari playing?

Cagliari have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Lazio and Cagliari last met?

It ended Cagliari 0, Lazio 0. In the last 2 meetings Lazio won 1 and Cagliari won 0.

What is the best bet for Lazio vs Cagliari?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lazio against Cagliari. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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