Predictions › France › Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre

Ligue 1Sun 18 Oct, 15:15 France time

Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre prediction

Stade Océane

Le Havre ACHome

1.37 : 1.23

expected goals

AJ AuxerreAway

39%Le Havre AC

28%Draw

33%Auxerre

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre is Le Havre AC to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction: Le Havre AC to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Le Havre AC 1.4, AJ Auxerre 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.531 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Le Havre AC 39%, the draw 28% and AJ Auxerre 33%. The bookmakers agree and make Le Havre AC the favourite at 2.40.
2
Recent form
Le Havre AC took 2 points from their last 5 games and AJ Auxerre took 6 from 5. AJ Auxerre come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Le Havre AC won 2 of their last 10 games at home. AJ Auxerre won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Le Havre AC score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. AJ Auxerre score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Le Havre AC games and 12 of AJ Auxerre games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Le Havre AC won 1 and AJ Auxerre won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Le Havre AC 1, AJ Auxerre 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Le Havre ACrecent form-4%
Auxerrerecent form-1%

Le Havre AC form L D L D LAuxerre form W W L L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre: Le Havre AC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Le Havre AC host AJ Auxerre in the Ligue 1 on Sun 18 Oct, 15:15 at Stade Océane. Our prediction for Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre is Le Havre AC to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Le Havre AC form

Le Havre AC have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

AJ Auxerre form

AJ Auxerre have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Le Havre AC won 1, AJ Auxerre won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Le Havre AC 1, AJ Auxerre 1.

Our call

We expect Le Havre AC to score about 1.4 goals and AJ Auxerre about 1.2. That points to Le Havre AC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.53.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Le Havre AC	Auxerre
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	7
Draws	8	7
Losses	9	6
Goals scored	20	27
Goals conceded	27	27
Scored per game	1.0	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	2W 4D 4L	5W 3D 2L
Away record	1W 4D 5L	2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	15%	35%
Both teams scored	55%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Le Havre AC to win	37%	2.70	2.40	-11.1%
A Draw	27%	3.65	3.35	-8.3%
AJ Auxerre to win	32%	3.15	2.85	-9.4%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14	1.80	-15.9%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.15	1.87	-12.9%
Le Havre AC -0.5	38%	2.66	2.25	-15.5%
AJ Auxerre +0.5	56%	1.78	1.53	-14.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.08
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.80
Both teams to score	53%	1.87
Le Havre AC or Draw	67%	1.49
AJ Auxerre or Draw	61%	1.65
Le Havre AC to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.35
AJ Auxerre to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.35
Le Havre AC clean sheet	29%	3.40
AJ Auxerre clean sheet	25%	3.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

1-09.5%

2-18.6%

0-18.4%

0-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre?

Our prediction for Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre is Le Havre AC to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Le Havre AC to score 1.4 goals and AJ Auxerre 1.2.

Will both teams score in Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Le Havre AC last 20 games and 11 of AJ Auxerre last 20.

How are Le Havre AC playing?

How are AJ Auxerre playing?

What happened when Le Havre AC and AJ Auxerre last met?

It ended Le Havre AC 1, AJ Auxerre 1. In the last 2 meetings Le Havre AC won 1 and AJ Auxerre won 0.

What is the best bet for Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Le Havre AC against Auxerre. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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