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Predictions › France › Le Mans vs Toulouse
Ligue 1Fri 16 Oct, 18:45 France time

Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction

Stade Marie-Marvingt

Le MansHome
1.33 : 1.55
expected goals
ToulouseAway
32%Le Mans
26%Draw
42%Toulouse
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Le Mans vs Toulouse is Toulouse to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Toulouse to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Le Mans 1.3, Toulouse 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Toulouse to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.711 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Le Mans 32%, the draw 26% and Toulouse 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Toulouse the favourite at 2.25.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Le Mans took 6 points from their last 5 games and Toulouse took 5 from 5. Le Mans come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Le Mans won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Toulouse won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Le Mans score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Toulouse score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Le Mans games and 11 of Toulouse games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Toulouserecent form-1%
Le Mans form W D D L DToulouse form W D L D LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Le Mans vs Toulouse: Toulouse shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Le Mans host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 on Fri 16 Oct, 18:45 at Stade Marie-Marvingt. Our prediction for Le Mans vs Toulouse is Toulouse to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Le Mans form

Le Mans have 9 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Toulouse form

Toulouse have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Le Mans to score about 1.3 goals and Toulouse about 1.6. That points to Toulouse to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Toulouse to win and Over 2.5 at 3.71.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Le MansToulouse
Games played2020
Wins96
Draws95
Losses29
Goals scored3625
Goals conceded2232
Scored per game1.81.3
Conceded per game1.11.6
Home record5W 5D 0L3W 3D 4L
Away record4W 4D 2L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets40%15%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Le Mans to win32%3.173.05-3.9%
A Draw26%3.883.35-13.6%
Toulouse to win39%2.552.25-11.8%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.981.71-13.3%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.342.00-14.4%
Le Mans +0.553%1.871.59-15.1%
Toulouse -0.540%2.502.10-16.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.82
Over 3.5 goals33%3.06
Both teams to score59%1.70
Le Mans or Draw58%1.72
Toulouse or Draw68%1.47
Le Mans to win and Over 2.520%4.92
Toulouse to win and Over 2.527%3.68
Le Mans clean sheet21%4.73
Toulouse clean sheet26%3.79

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
1-29.0%
0-18.0%
2-17.7%
1-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?

Our prediction for Le Mans vs Toulouse is Toulouse to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Le Mans vs Toulouse?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Le Mans to score 1.3 goals and Toulouse 1.6.

Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Toulouse?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Le Mans last 20 games and 11 of Toulouse last 20.

How are Le Mans playing?

Le Mans have 9 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Toulouse playing?

Toulouse have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Le Mans vs Toulouse?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Le Mans against Toulouse. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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