Predictions › Italy › Lecce vs Bologna

Serie ASun 11 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Lecce vs Bologna prediction

Via Del Mare

LecceHome

1.00 : 1.53

expected goals

BolognaAway

24%Lecce

27%Draw

49%Bologna

Eagle safe pickBologna or Draw

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lecce vs Bologna is Bologna to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Bologna or Draw at 1.32.

Prediction: Bologna to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lecce 1.0, Bologna 1.5
Best bet: Bologna or Draw at 1.32
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bologna or Draw

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bologna to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lecce 24%, the draw 27% and Bologna 49%. The bookmakers agree and make Bologna the favourite at 1.87.
2
Recent form
Lecce took 6 points from their last 5 games and Bologna took 2 from 5. Lecce come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lecce won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Bologna won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Lecce score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.5. Bologna score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Lecce games and 8 of Bologna games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lecce won 0 and Bologna won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Bologna 2, Lecce 0.
6
The safest bet
Bologna or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Leccerecent form-1%
Bolognarecent form-4%

Lecce form L W L L WBologna form D L D L LHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lecce vs Bologna: Bologna are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lecce host Bologna in the Serie A on Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 at Via Del Mare. Our prediction for Lecce vs Bologna is Bologna to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Bologna or Draw at 1.32.

Lecce form

Lecce have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Bologna form

Bologna have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lecce won 0, Bologna won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Bologna 2, Lecce 0.

Our call

We expect Lecce to score about 1.0 goals and Bologna about 1.5. That points to Bologna to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Bologna or Draw at 1.32. Our bold bet is Bologna to win and Over 2.5 at 3.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lecce	Bologna
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	6
Draws	2	5
Losses	10	9
Goals scored	20	22
Goals conceded	30	31
Scored per game	1.0	1.1
Conceded per game	1.5	1.6
Home record	4W 1D 4L	1W 5D 5L
Away record	4W 1D 6L	5W 0D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lecce to win	23%	4.26	3.95	-7.3%
A Draw	26%	3.78	3.20	-15.3%
Bologna to win	46%	2.17	1.87	-13.9%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.25	1.95	-13.4%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	2.01	1.77	-12.0%
Lecce +0.5	47%	2.11	1.80	-14.8%
Bologna -0.5	47%	2.14	1.80	-15.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.16
Over 3.5 goals	25%	4.02
Both teams to score	50%	1.99
Lecce or Draw	51%	1.96
Bologna or Draw	76%	1.31
Lecce to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.84
Bologna to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.56
Lecce clean sheet	22%	4.63
Bologna clean sheet	37%	2.71

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

0-111.5%

0-29.3%

1-29.3%

0-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lecce vs Bologna?

Our prediction for Lecce vs Bologna is Bologna to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Bologna or Draw at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Lecce vs Bologna?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-2. We expect Lecce to score 1.0 goals and Bologna 1.5.

Will both teams score in Lecce vs Bologna?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Lecce last 20 games and 9 of Bologna last 20.

How are Lecce playing?

How are Bologna playing?

What happened when Lecce and Bologna last met?

It ended Bologna 2, Lecce 0. In the last 2 meetings Lecce won 0 and Bologna won 1.

What is the best bet for Lecce vs Bologna?

Bologna or Draw at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lecce against Bologna. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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