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Predictions › Italy › Lecce vs Genoa
Serie ASun 1 Nov, 17:00 Italy time

Lecce vs Genoa prediction

Via Del Mare

LecceHome
0.98 : 1.10
expected goals
GenoaAway
31%Lecce
32%Draw
37%Genoa
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lecce vs Genoa is Genoa to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction
Genoa to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lecce 1.0, Genoa 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.202 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.001 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lecce 31%, the draw 32% and Genoa 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lecce took 6 points from their last 5 games and Genoa took 4 from 5. Lecce come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lecce won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Genoa won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lecce score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.6. Genoa score 0.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Lecce games and 8 of Genoa games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Lecce won 1 and Genoa won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lecce 1, Genoa 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Leccerecent form-3%
  • Genoarecent form+1%
Lecce form D L L W LGenoa form D W L W DHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lecce vs Genoa: Genoa shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lecce host Genoa in the Serie A on Sun 1 Nov, 17:00 at Via Del Mare. Our prediction for Lecce vs Genoa is Genoa to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Lecce form

Lecce have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Genoa form

Genoa have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Lecce won 1, Genoa won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lecce 1, Genoa 0.

Our call

We expect Lecce to score about 1.0 goals and Genoa about 1.1. That points to Genoa to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LecceGenoa
Games played2020
Wins76
Draws23
Losses1111
Goals scored2017
Goals conceded3127
Scored per game1.00.8
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record3W 1D 5L4W 1D 5L
Away record4W 1D 6L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored40%40%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals62%1.60
Over 2.5 goals35%2.89
Over 3.5 goals16%6.32
Both teams to score43%2.35
Lecce or Draw63%1.59
Genoa or Draw69%1.45
Lecce to win and Over 2.514%7.27
Genoa to win and Over 2.517%5.99
Lecce clean sheet33%3.00
Genoa clean sheet37%2.68

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%
0-013.3%
0-112.9%
1-011.5%
0-27.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?

Our prediction for Lecce vs Genoa is Genoa to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Lecce vs Genoa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 0-1. We expect Lecce to score 1.0 goals and Genoa 1.1.

Will both teams score in Lecce vs Genoa?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Lecce last 20 games and 8 of Genoa last 20.

How are Lecce playing?

Lecce have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Genoa playing?

Genoa have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Lecce and Genoa last met?

It ended Lecce 1, Genoa 0. In the last 1 meeting Lecce won 1 and Genoa won 0.

What is the best bet for Lecce vs Genoa?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.20, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lecce against Genoa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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