Predictions › Europa League › Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction

Municipal Stadium-Poznan

Lech PoznanHome

1.30 : 1.94

expected goals

Bayer LeverkusenAway

25%Lech Poznan

23%Draw

52%Leverkusen

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.3, Bayer Leverkusen 1.9
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price 2.831 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lech Poznan 25%, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 52%. The bookmakers agree and make Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 1.65.
2
Recent form
Lech Poznan took 9 points from their last 5 games and Bayer Leverkusen took 10 from 5. Bayer Leverkusen come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lech Poznan won 3 of their last 5 games at home. Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Lech Poznan score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.5. Bayer Leverkusen score 1.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Lech Poznan games and 10 of Bayer Leverkusen games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lech Poznanrecent form+3%
Leverkusenrecent form+3%

Lech Poznan form L D W W WLeverkusen form W W D W LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen: Bayer Leverkusen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lech Poznan host Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 at Municipal Stadium-Poznan. Our prediction for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Lech Poznan form

Lech Poznan have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 11 games, with 18 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Bayer Leverkusen form

Bayer Leverkusen have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Lech Poznan to score about 1.3 goals and Bayer Leverkusen about 1.9. That points to Bayer Leverkusen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5 at 2.83.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lech Poznan	Leverkusen
Games played	11	20
Wins	6	8
Draws	1	8
Losses	4	4
Goals scored	18	38
Goals conceded	16	27
Scored per game	1.6	1.9
Conceded per game	1.5	1.4
Home record	3W 1D 1L	5W 5D 1L
Away record	3W 0D 3L	3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	27%	30%
Both teams scored	64%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	64%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lech Poznan to win	25%	4.05	4.40	+8.7%
A Draw	23%	4.37	4.20	-3.9%
Bayer Leverkusen to win	49%	2.05	1.65	-19.7%
Over 3.5 goals	39%	2.55	2.20	-13.6%
Under 3.5 goals	55%	1.81	1.63	-10.3%
Lech Poznan +0.5	42%	2.38	2.10	-11.8%
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5	53%	1.90	1.59	-16.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	63%	1.59
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.46
Both teams to score	63%	1.59
Lech Poznan or Draw	48%	2.07
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	75%	1.34
Lech Poznan to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.78
Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5	37%	2.68
Lech Poznan clean sheet	14%	6.93
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	27%	3.68

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%

1-29.6%

0-27.3%

0-17.0%

2-16.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Real Madrid Eye Bayer Leverkusen Star Jarell Quansah

Real Madrid are tracking former Liverpool defender Jarell Quansah ahead of next summer, while several Premier League clubs eye Jules Kounde.

1 Oct 2026

Premier League

Is Liverpool Giving Up on Florian Wirtz Too Soon?

Florian Wirtz has struggled to match his Leverkusen form at Liverpool, but stats show why the club made a record investment.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our prediction for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Lech Poznan to score 1.3 goals and Bayer Leverkusen 1.9.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Lech Poznan last 11 games and 13 of Bayer Leverkusen last 20.

How are Lech Poznan playing?

How are Bayer Leverkusen playing?

What is the best bet for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lech Poznan against Leverkusen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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