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Predictions › United Kingdom › Leeds United vs Manchester United
Premier LeagueSun 18 Oct, 14:00 United Kingdom time

Leeds United vs Manchester United prediction

Elland Road

Leeds UnitedHome
1.45 : 1.44
expected goals
Manchester UnitedAway
37%Leeds
26%Draw
37%Man United
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Leeds United vs Manchester United is Leeds United to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction
Leeds United to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Leeds United 1.4, Manchester United 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 3/102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
12% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Leeds United 37%, the draw 26% and Manchester United 37%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Manchester United the favourite at 5/4, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Leeds United took 6 points from their last 5 games and Manchester United took 5 from 5. Leeds United come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Leeds United won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Manchester United won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Leeds United score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Manchester United score 1.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Leeds United games and 13 of Manchester United games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Leeds United won 1 and Manchester United won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Manchester United 1, Leeds United 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Man Unitedrecent form-1%
  • Man Unitedteam news-1%
Leeds form D W L D DMan United form D L L W DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Leeds United vs Manchester United: Leeds United shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Leeds United host Manchester United in the Premier League on Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 at Elland Road. Our prediction for Leeds United vs Manchester United is Leeds United to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Leeds United form

Leeds United have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Manchester United form

Manchester United have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Leeds United won 1, Manchester United won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Manchester United 1, Leeds United 2.

Our call

We expect Leeds United to score about 1.4 goals and Manchester United about 1.4. That points to Leeds United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LeedsMan United
Games played2020
Wins810
Draws85
Losses45
Goals scored2937
Goals conceded2125
Scored per game1.41.9
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record5W 3D 1L7W 0D 3L
Away record3W 5D 3L3W 5D 2L
Clean sheets40%25%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Leeds United to win35%15/87/4-3.1%
A Draw26%3/113/5-7.3%
Manchester United to win35%15/85/4-19.8%
Over 2.5 goals54%5/64/7-14.7%
Under 2.5 goals40%6/45/4-11.0%
Leeds United +0.556%4/54/7-13.4%
Manchester United -0.538%13/811/10-18.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1/4
Over 2.5 goals55%4/5
Over 3.5 goals33%2/1
Both teams to score59%4/6
Leeds United or Draw63%4/7
Manchester United or Draw63%4/7
Leeds United to win and Over 2.524%10/3
Manchester United to win and Over 2.524%10/3
Leeds United clean sheet24%10/3
Manchester United clean sheet23%10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
2-18.4%
1-28.4%
1-07.4%
0-17.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Carrick and De Zerbi Face Early Pressure Ahead of Big Match

Michael Carrick and Roberto De Zerbi are under early pressure as Manchester United prepare to face Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League.

8 hours ago
Premier League

Sir Alex Ferguson Hails Ronaldo and Rooney Partnership as Europe's Best

Sir Alex Ferguson believes Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney were Europe's finest during a trophy-filled spell at Manchester United.

8 hours ago
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Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea are tracking Freiburg striker Igor Matanovic, while Arsenal's Noni Madueke attracts loan interest.

6 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Leeds United vs Manchester United?

Our prediction for Leeds United vs Manchester United is Leeds United to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Leeds United vs Manchester United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Leeds United to score 1.4 goals and Manchester United 1.4.

Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Manchester United?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Leeds United last 20 games and 13 of Manchester United last 20.

How are Leeds United playing?

Leeds United have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, D, newest first.

How are Manchester United playing?

Manchester United have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Leeds United and Manchester United last met?

It ended Manchester United 1, Leeds United 2. In the last 2 meetings Leeds United won 1 and Manchester United won 0.

What is the best bet for Leeds United vs Manchester United?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Leeds against Man United. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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