Predictions › Spain › Leganés vs Castellón

LaLiga 2Mon 28 Sept, 18:30 Spain time

Leganés vs Castellón prediction

Estadio Municipal de Butarque

LeganésHome

1.20 : 1.42

expected goals

CastellónAway

31%Leganés

28%Draw

42%Castellón

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Leganés vs Castellón is Castellón to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Castellón to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Leganés 1.2, Castellón 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.331 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.611 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Leganés 31%, the draw 28% and Castellón 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Castellón the favourite at 2.30.
2
Recent form
Leganés took 10 points from their last 5 games and Castellón took 13 from 5. Castellón come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Leganés won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Castellón won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Leganés score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Castellón score 1.8 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Leganés games and 10 of Castellón games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Leganés won 0 and Castellón won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Castellón 2, Leganés 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Leganésrecent form+3%
Castellónrecent form+6%

Leganés form W L D W WCastellón form W W W W DHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Leganés vs Castellón: Castellón shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Leganés host Castellón in the LaLiga 2 on Mon 28 Sept, 18:30 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque. Our prediction for Leganés vs Castellón is Castellón to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Leganés form

Leganés have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Castellón form

Castellón have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Leganés won 0, Castellón won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Castellón 2, Leganés 0.

Our call

We expect Leganés to score about 1.2 goals and Castellón about 1.4. That points to Castellón to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.61.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Leganés	Castellón
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	11
Draws	5	7
Losses	9	2
Goals scored	20	36
Goals conceded	28	20
Scored per game	1.0	1.8
Conceded per game	1.4	1.0
Home record	5W 2D 3L	6W 4D 1L
Away record	1W 3D 6L	5W 3D 1L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	45%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Leganés to win	30%	3.39	3.10	-8.4%
A Draw	27%	3.77	3.35	-11.1%
Castellón to win	38%	2.60	2.30	-11.7%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.15	1.87	-13.1%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.11	1.87	-11.6%
Leganés +0.5	54%	1.84	1.63	-11.8%
Castellón -0.5	39%	2.53	2.15	-15.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.34
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.06
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.73
Both teams to score	54%	1.86
Leganés or Draw	58%	1.71
Castellón or Draw	69%	1.45
Leganés to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.64
Castellón to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.08
Leganés clean sheet	24%	4.15
Castellón clean sheet	30%	3.30

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

0-19.6%

1-28.8%

0-08.0%

1-08.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Leganés vs Castellón?

Our prediction for Leganés vs Castellón is Castellón to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Leganés vs Castellón?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Leganés to score 1.2 goals and Castellón 1.4.

Will both teams score in Leganés vs Castellón?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Leganés last 20 games and 14 of Castellón last 20.

How are Leganés playing?

How are Castellón playing?

What happened when Leganés and Castellón last met?

It ended Castellón 2, Leganés 0. In the last 2 meetings Leganés won 0 and Castellón won 2.

What is the best bet for Leganés vs Castellón?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Leganés against Castellón. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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