Predictions › France › Lens vs Lyon

Ligue 1Fri 9 Oct, 18:45 France time

Lens vs Lyon prediction

Stade Bollaert-Delelis

LensHome

1.58 : 1.32

expected goals

LyonAway

43%Lens

26%Draw

31%Lyon

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lens vs Lyon is Lens to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Lens to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lens 1.6, Lyon 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lens to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.721 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lens 43%, the draw 26% and Lyon 31%. The bookmakers agree and make Lens the favourite at 2.20.
2
Recent form
Lens took 4 points from their last 5 games and Lyon took 11 from 5. Lyon come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lens won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Lyon won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Lens score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.5. Lyon score 1.5 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Lens games and 11 of Lyon games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Lens won 1 and Lyon won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lyon 0, Lens 4.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lensrecent form-3%
Lyonrecent form+4%

Lens form L D W L LLyon form W W D W DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lens vs Lyon: Lens shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lens host Lyon in the Ligue 1 on Fri 9 Oct, 18:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Our prediction for Lens vs Lyon is Lens to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Lens form

Lens have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Lyon form

Lyon have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Lens won 1, Lyon won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lyon 0, Lens 4.

Our call

We expect Lens to score about 1.6 goals and Lyon about 1.3. That points to Lens to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Lens to win and Over 2.5 at 3.72.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lens	Lyon
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	8
Draws	4	6
Losses	7	6
Goals scored	44	30
Goals conceded	30	26
Scored per game	2.2	1.5
Conceded per game	1.5	1.3
Home record	6W 0D 3L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	3W 4D 4L	3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lens to win	40%	2.52	2.20	-12.8%
A Draw	25%	3.97	3.70	-6.9%
Lyon to win	30%	3.33	2.90	-13.0%
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.81	2.30	-18.3%
Under 3.5 goals	60%	1.67	1.56	-6.7%
Lens -0.5	40%	2.47	2.05	-17.1%
Lyon +0.5	53%	1.88	1.61	-14.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.81
Over 3.5 goals	33%	3.04
Both teams to score	59%	1.70
Lens or Draw	69%	1.46
Lyon or Draw	57%	1.75
Lens to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.59
Lyon to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.03
Lens clean sheet	27%	3.74
Lyon clean sheet	21%	4.84

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%

2-19.1%

1-08.0%

1-27.6%

2-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lens vs Lyon?

Our prediction for Lens vs Lyon is Lens to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Lens vs Lyon?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Lens to score 1.6 goals and Lyon 1.3.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Lyon?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Lens last 20 games and 12 of Lyon last 20.

How are Lens playing?

How are Lyon playing?

What happened when Lens and Lyon last met?

It ended Lyon 0, Lens 4. In the last 1 meeting Lens won 1 and Lyon won 0.

What is the best bet for Lens vs Lyon?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lens against Lyon. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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