Predictions › France › Lens vs Marseille

Ligue 1Sun 8 Nov, 19:45 France time

Lens vs Marseille prediction

Stade Bollaert-Delelis

LensHome

1.86 : 1.40

expected goals

MarseilleAway

48%Lens

24%Draw

28%Marseille

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lens vs Marseille is Lens to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Lens to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lens 1.9, Marseille 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lens to win and Over 2.5

34% chanceFair price 2.951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lens 48%, the draw 24% and Marseille 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Lens the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Lens took 9 points from their last 5 games and Marseille took 9 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Lens won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Marseille won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Lens score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Marseille score 1.5 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Lens games and 11 of Marseille games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lens won 1 and Marseille won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Marseille 3, Lens 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Lens form D L W L WMarseille form D L W L WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lens vs Marseille: Lens are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lens host Marseille in the Ligue 1 on Sun 8 Nov, 19:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Our prediction for Lens vs Marseille is Lens to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Lens form

Lens have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Marseille form

Marseille have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lens won 1, Marseille won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Marseille 3, Lens 1.

Our call

We expect Lens to score about 1.9 goals and Marseille about 1.4. That points to Lens to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Lens to win and Over 2.5 at 2.95.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lens	Marseille
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	8
Draws	3	1
Losses	8	11
Goals scored	37	30
Goals conceded	33	31
Scored per game	1.9	1.5
Conceded per game	1.6	1.6
Home record	6W 0D 3L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	3W 3D 5L	3W 0D 7L
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lens to win	45%	2.21	2.05	-7.1%
A Draw	24%	4.24	3.95	-6.9%
Marseille to win	28%	3.58	3.10	-13.3%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.38	2.10	-11.8%
Under 3.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.65	-14.7%
Lens -0.5	45%	2.22	1.91	-13.9%
Marseille +0.5	49%	2.05	1.71	-16.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	63%	1.58
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.44
Both teams to score	64%	1.56
Lens or Draw	72%	1.40
Marseille or Draw	52%	1.91
Lens to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.89
Marseille to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.02
Lens clean sheet	25%	4.05
Marseille clean sheet	16%	6.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%

2-19.3%

1-27.0%

2-06.6%

1-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lens vs Marseille?

Our prediction for Lens vs Marseille is Lens to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Lens vs Marseille?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Lens to score 1.9 goals and Marseille 1.4.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Marseille?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Lens last 20 games and 10 of Marseille last 20.

How are Lens playing?

How are Marseille playing?

What happened when Lens and Marseille last met?

It ended Marseille 3, Lens 1. In the last 2 meetings Lens won 1 and Marseille won 1.

What is the best bet for Lens vs Marseille?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lens against Marseille. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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