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Predictions › France › Lens vs Paris FC
Ligue 1Sat 24 Oct, 18:45 France time

Lens vs Paris FC prediction

Stade Bollaert-Delelis

LensHome
1.62 : 1.23
expected goals
Paris FCAway
46%Lens
26%Draw
28%Paris FC
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lens vs Paris FC is Lens to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Lens to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lens 1.6, Paris FC 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lens to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.631 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lens 46%, the draw 26% and Paris FC 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Lens the favourite at 2.05.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lens took 7 points from their last 5 games and Paris FC took 10 from 5. Paris FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lens won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Paris FC won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lens score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Paris FC score 1.4 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Lens games and 10 of Paris FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Lens won 2 and Paris FC won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Paris FC 0, Lens 5.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lensrecent form+1%
  • Paris FCrecent form+4%
  • Lensrest between games-5%
Lens form D W L D WParis FC form D W D W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lens vs Paris FC: Lens are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lens host Paris FC in the Ligue 1 on Sat 24 Oct, 18:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Our prediction for Lens vs Paris FC is Lens to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Lens form

Lens have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Paris FC form

Paris FC have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lens won 2, Paris FC won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Paris FC 0, Lens 5.

Our call

We expect Lens to score about 1.6 goals and Paris FC about 1.2. That points to Lens to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Lens to win and Over 2.5 at 3.63.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LensParis FC
Games played2020
Wins89
Draws47
Losses84
Goals scored3829
Goals conceded3220
Scored per game1.91.4
Conceded per game1.61.0
Home record6W 0D 4L7W 1D 2L
Away record2W 4D 4L2W 6D 2L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals70%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Lens to win45%2.232.05-8.1%
A Draw24%4.103.75-8.5%
Paris FC to win27%3.763.15-16.2%
Over 2.5 goals53%1.871.57-16.1%
Under 2.5 goals42%2.362.25-4.5%
Lens -0.545%2.211.95-11.9%
Paris FC +0.551%1.971.69-14.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.85
Over 3.5 goals32%3.14
Both teams to score57%1.74
Lens or Draw72%1.40
Paris FC or Draw54%1.84
Lens to win and Over 2.529%3.39
Paris FC to win and Over 2.518%5.70
Lens clean sheet29%3.42
Paris FC clean sheet20%5.05

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
2-19.3%
1-08.7%
2-07.6%
1-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?

Our prediction for Lens vs Paris FC is Lens to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Lens vs Paris FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Lens to score 1.6 goals and Paris FC 1.2.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Paris FC?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Lens last 20 games and 10 of Paris FC last 20.

How are Lens playing?

Lens have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Paris FC playing?

Paris FC have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Lens and Paris FC last met?

It ended Paris FC 0, Lens 5. In the last 2 meetings Lens won 2 and Paris FC won 0.

What is the best bet for Lens vs Paris FC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lens against Paris FC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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