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Predictions › Champions League › Lens vs Sporting CP
Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct, 16:45 UTC

Lens vs Sporting CP prediction

Stade Bollaert-Delelis

LensHome
1.52 : 1.51
expected goals
Sporting CPAway
37%Lens
26%Draw
37%Sporting
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lens vs Sporting CP is Lens to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Lens to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lens 1.5, Sporting CP 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
12% chanceFair price 8.501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lens 37%, the draw 26% and Sporting CP 37%. The bookmakers agree and make Lens the favourite at 2.40.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lens took 4 points from their last 5 games and Sporting CP took 11 from 5. Sporting CP come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lens won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Sporting CP won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lens score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.5. Sporting CP score 2.5 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Lens games and 14 of Sporting CP games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lensrecent form-3%
  • Sportingrecent form+4%
Lens form L D W L LSporting form D D W W WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lens vs Sporting CP: Lens shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lens host Sporting CP in the Champions League on Tue 13 Oct, 16:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Our prediction for Lens vs Sporting CP is Lens to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Lens form

Lens have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Sporting CP form

Sporting CP have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Lens to score about 1.5 goals and Sporting CP about 1.5. That points to Lens to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 8.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LensSporting
Games played2020
Wins912
Draws46
Losses72
Goals scored4450
Goals conceded3020
Scored per game2.22.5
Conceded per game1.51.0
Home record6W 0D 3L8W 2D 2L
Away record3W 4D 4L4W 4D 0L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals75%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Lens to win36%2.792.40-13.9%
A Draw25%3.993.65-8.5%
Sporting CP to win36%2.802.65-5.5%
Over 3.5 goals37%2.732.35-13.8%
Under 3.5 goals60%1.671.53-8.8%
Lens -0.538%2.652.25-15.2%
Sporting CP +0.558%1.731.53-11.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals58%1.72
Over 3.5 goals36%2.79
Both teams to score61%1.63
Lens or Draw63%1.59
Sporting CP or Draw63%1.60
Lens to win and Over 2.525%3.98
Sporting CP to win and Over 2.525%4.01
Lens clean sheet22%4.53
Sporting CP clean sheet22%4.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
2-18.4%
1-28.4%
1-06.7%
0-16.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lens vs Sporting CP?

Our prediction for Lens vs Sporting CP is Lens to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Lens vs Sporting CP?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Lens to score 1.5 goals and Sporting CP 1.5.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Sporting CP?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Lens last 20 games and 13 of Sporting CP last 20.

How are Lens playing?

Lens have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Sporting CP playing?

Sporting CP have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Lens vs Sporting CP?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lens against Sporting. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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