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Predictions › Mexico › León vs América
Liga MXSun 18 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

León vs América prediction

Estadio León

LeónHome
1.68 : 1.54
expected goals
AméricaAway
41%León
25%Draw
35%América
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for León vs América is León to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
León to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
León 1.7, América 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

León to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives León 41%, the draw 25% and América 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    León took 8 points from their last 5 games and América took 10 from 5. América come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    León won 7 of their last 10 games at home. América won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    León score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. América score 1.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of León games and 10 of América games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, León won 0 and América won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended León 2, América 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Leónrecent form+3%
  • Américarecent form-3%
León form W D W L WAmérica form W D L L LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

León vs América: León shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

León host América in the Liga MX on Sun 18 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio León. Our prediction for León vs América is León to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

León form

León have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

América form

América have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. León won 0, América won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished León 2, América 3.

Our call

We expect León to score about 1.7 goals and América about 1.5. That points to León to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is León to win and Over 2.5 at 3.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LeónAmérica
Games played2020
Wins108
Draws28
Losses84
Goals scored2935
Goals conceded3325
Scored per game1.41.8
Conceded per game1.61.3
Home record7W 0D 3L4W 4D 2L
Away record3W 2D 5L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.19
Over 2.5 goals62%1.60
Over 3.5 goals40%2.49
Both teams to score64%1.55
León or Draw65%1.53
América or Draw59%1.69
León to win and Over 2.529%3.45
América to win and Over 2.524%4.09
León clean sheet22%4.65
América clean sheet19%5.35

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%
2-18.7%
1-28.0%
2-26.7%
1-06.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win León vs América?

Our prediction for León vs América is León to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for León vs América?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect León to score 1.7 goals and América 1.5.

Will both teams score in León vs América?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of León last 20 games and 12 of América last 20.

How are León playing?

León have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

How are América playing?

América have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when León and América last met?

It ended León 2, América 3. In the last 2 meetings León won 0 and América won 2.

What is the best bet for León vs América?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in León against América. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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