Predictions › Mexico › León vs Guadalajara

Liga MXMon 9 Nov, 02:00 Mexico time

León vs Guadalajara prediction

Estadio León

LeónHome

1.41 : 1.57

expected goals

GuadalajaraAway

34%León

26%Draw

41%Guadalajara

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for León vs Guadalajara is Guadalajara to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: Guadalajara to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: León 1.4, Guadalajara 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.761 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives León 34%, the draw 26% and Guadalajara 41%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
León took 8 points from their last 5 games and Guadalajara took 8 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
León won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Guadalajara won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
León score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Guadalajara score 1.4 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of León games and 7 of Guadalajara games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, León won 0 and Guadalajara won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Guadalajara 5, León 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Leónrecent form+1%

León form D W L D WGuadalajara form D W D D LHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

León vs Guadalajara: Guadalajara shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

León host Guadalajara in the Liga MX on Mon 9 Nov, 02:00 at Estadio León. Our prediction for León vs Guadalajara is Guadalajara to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

León form

León have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Guadalajara form

Guadalajara have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. León won 0, Guadalajara won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Guadalajara 5, León 0.

Our call

We expect León to score about 1.4 goals and Guadalajara about 1.6. That points to Guadalajara to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5 at 3.76.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	León	Guadalajara
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	8
Draws	4	8
Losses	6	4
Goals scored	32	27
Goals conceded	27	19
Scored per game	1.6	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	0.9
Home record	6W 1D 3L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	4W 3D 3L	3W 6D 1L
Clean sheets	30%	45%
Both teams scored	65%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.75
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.87
Both teams to score	61%	1.65
León or Draw	59%	1.68
Guadalajara or Draw	66%	1.51
León to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.51
Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.70
León clean sheet	21%	4.79
Guadalajara clean sheet	24%	4.10

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%

1-28.8%

2-17.9%

0-17.3%

1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win León vs Guadalajara?

Our prediction for León vs Guadalajara is Guadalajara to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for León vs Guadalajara?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect León to score 1.4 goals and Guadalajara 1.6.

Will both teams score in León vs Guadalajara?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of León last 20 games and 9 of Guadalajara last 20.

How are León playing?

How are Guadalajara playing?

What happened when León and Guadalajara last met?

It ended Guadalajara 5, León 0. In the last 1 meeting León won 0 and Guadalajara won 1.

What is the best bet for León vs Guadalajara?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in León against Guadalajara. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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