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Predictions › Mexico › León vs Toluca
Liga MXSat 24 Oct, 23:00 Mexico time

León vs Toluca prediction

Estadio León

LeónHome
1.40 : 1.36
expected goals
TolucaAway
37%León
27%Draw
36%Toluca
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for León vs Toluca is León to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
León to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
León 1.4, Toluca 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.831 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives León 37%, the draw 27% and Toluca 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    León took 8 points from their last 5 games and Toluca took 7 from 5. León come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    León won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Toluca won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    León score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Toluca score 2.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of León games and 14 of Toluca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, León won 0 and Toluca won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Toluca 4, León 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Leónrecent form+1%
  • Tolucarecent form+1%
León form D W D W LToluca form D D L W WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

León vs Toluca: León shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

León host Toluca in the Liga MX on Sat 24 Oct, 23:00 at Estadio León. Our prediction for León vs Toluca is León to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

León form

León have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Toluca form

Toluca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. León won 0, Toluca won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Toluca 4, León 1.

Our call

We expect León to score about 1.4 goals and Toluca about 1.4. That points to León to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.83.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LeónToluca
Games played2020
Wins99
Draws33
Losses88
Goals scored2842
Goals conceded3328
Scored per game1.42.1
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record6W 0D 3L5W 1D 3L
Away record3W 3D 5L4W 2D 5L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals55%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.92
Over 3.5 goals30%3.34
Both teams to score57%1.76
León or Draw64%1.55
Toluca or Draw63%1.60
León to win and Over 2.523%4.33
Toluca to win and Over 2.522%4.57
León clean sheet26%3.90
Toluca clean sheet25%4.06

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%
2-18.4%
1-28.2%
1-08.1%
0-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win León vs Toluca?

Our prediction for León vs Toluca is León to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for León vs Toluca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect León to score 1.4 goals and Toluca 1.4.

Will both teams score in León vs Toluca?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of León last 20 games and 12 of Toluca last 20.

How are León playing?

León have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, L, newest first.

How are Toluca playing?

Toluca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when León and Toluca last met?

It ended Toluca 4, León 1. In the last 2 meetings León won 0 and Toluca won 2.

What is the best bet for León vs Toluca?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in León against Toluca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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