Predictions › Spain › Levante vs Athletic Club

LaLigaWed 21 Oct, 18:00 Spain time

Levante vs Athletic Club prediction

Estadi Ciutat de València

LevanteHome

3-1

final score

Athletic ClubAway

33%Levante

27%Draw

39%Athletic

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Levante vs Athletic Club is Athletic Club to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Athletic Club to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Levante 1.3, Athletic Club 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 unitswon

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Levante to win

30% chancePrice 3.65+10.9% value2 unitswon

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Levante 33%, the draw 27% and Athletic Club 39%. The bookmakers agree and make Athletic Club the favourite at 2.30.
2
Recent form
Levante took 3 points from their last 5 games and Athletic Club took 9 from 5. Athletic Club come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Levante won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Athletic Club won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Levante score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Athletic Club score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Levante games and 8 of Athletic Club games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Levante won 0 and Athletic Club won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Athletic Club 4, Levante 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Levanterecent form-3%
Athleticrecent form+3%

Levante form D D L L DAthletic form D D D W WHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Levante vs Athletic Club: Athletic Club shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Levante host Athletic Club in the LaLiga on Wed 21 Oct, 18:00 at Estadi Ciutat de València. Our prediction for Levante vs Athletic Club is Athletic Club to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Levante form

Levante have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, D, newest first.

Athletic Club form

Athletic Club have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Levante won 0, Athletic Club won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Athletic Club 4, Levante 2.

Our call

We expect Levante to score about 1.3 goals and Athletic Club about 1.4. That points to Athletic Club to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Levante to win at 3.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Levante	Athletic
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	5
Draws	7	5
Losses	6	10
Goals scored	31	21
Goals conceded	33	29
Scored per game	1.6	1.1
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	6W 2D 1L	3W 3D 4L
Away record	1W 5D 5L	2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Levante to win	32%	3.08	3.40	+10.3%
A Draw	26%	3.84	3.20	-16.7%
Athletic Club to win	40%	2.49	2.25	-9.5%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.15	2.05	-4.8%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	2.02	1.77	-12.4%
Levante +0.5	53%	1.88	1.61	-14.6%
Athletic Club -0.5	43%	2.34	2.15	-8.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.98
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.51
Both teams to score	55%	1.80
Levante or Draw	61%	1.65
Athletic Club or Draw	67%	1.50
Levante to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.04
Athletic Club to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.18
Levante clean sheet	24%	4.12
Athletic Club clean sheet	28%	3.60

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

0-18.8%

1-28.7%

1-07.9%

2-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Levante vs Athletic Club?

Our prediction for Levante vs Athletic Club is Athletic Club to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Levante vs Athletic Club?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Levante to score 1.3 goals and Athletic Club 1.4.

Will both teams score in Levante vs Athletic Club?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Levante last 20 games and 9 of Athletic Club last 20.

How are Levante playing?

How are Athletic Club playing?

What happened when Levante and Athletic Club last met?

It ended Athletic Club 4, Levante 2. In the last 2 meetings Levante won 0 and Athletic Club won 2.

What is the best bet for Levante vs Athletic Club?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Levante against Athletic. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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