Predictions › Spain › Levante vs Sevilla

LaLigaMon 12 Oct, 19:00 Spain time

Levante vs Sevilla prediction

Estadi Ciutat de València

LevanteHome

1.38 : 1.33

expected goals

SevillaAway

38%Levante

27%Draw

35%Sevilla

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Levante vs Sevilla is Levante to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Levante to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Levante 1.4, Sevilla 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.721 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Levante 38%, the draw 27% and Sevilla 35%. The bookmakers agree and make Levante the favourite at 2.65.
2
Recent form
Levante took 5 points from their last 5 games and Sevilla took 7 from 5. Sevilla come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Levante won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Sevilla won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Levante score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Sevilla score 1.2 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Levante games and 10 of Sevilla games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Levante won 2 and Sevilla won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Levante 2, Sevilla 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Levanterecent form-1%

Levante form L L D W DSevilla form L W W D LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Levante vs Sevilla: Levante shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Levante host Sevilla in the LaLiga on Mon 12 Oct, 19:00 at Estadi Ciutat de València. Our prediction for Levante vs Sevilla is Levante to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Levante form

Levante have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Sevilla form

Sevilla have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Levante won 2, Sevilla won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Levante 2, Sevilla 0.

Our call

We expect Levante to score about 1.4 goals and Sevilla about 1.3. That points to Levante to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.72.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Levante	Sevilla
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	8
Draws	5	3
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	29	24
Goals conceded	32	30
Scored per game	1.4	1.2
Conceded per game	1.6	1.5
Home record	7W 1D 1L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	1W 4D 6L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	35%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Levante to win	36%	2.80	2.65	-5.4%
A Draw	27%	3.75	3.25	-13.3%
Sevilla to win	34%	2.97	2.65	-10.9%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.22	2.00	-10.1%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.74	-14.5%
Levante +0.5	63%	1.60	1.44	-10.1%
Sevilla -0.5	35%	2.88	2.45	-15.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.97
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.48
Both teams to score	56%	1.79
Levante or Draw	65%	1.54
Sevilla or Draw	62%	1.60
Levante to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.39
Sevilla to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.73
Levante clean sheet	27%	3.77
Sevilla clean sheet	25%	3.98

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

1-08.5%

2-18.4%

0-18.1%

1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Levante vs Sevilla?

Our prediction for Levante vs Sevilla is Levante to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Levante vs Sevilla?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Levante to score 1.4 goals and Sevilla 1.3.

Will both teams score in Levante vs Sevilla?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Levante last 20 games and 12 of Sevilla last 20.

How are Levante playing?

How are Sevilla playing?

What happened when Levante and Sevilla last met?

It ended Levante 2, Sevilla 0. In the last 2 meetings Levante won 2 and Sevilla won 0.

What is the best bet for Levante vs Sevilla?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Levante against Sevilla. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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