Predictions › Europa League › Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok

Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 17:45 UTC

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok prediction

Vasil Levski National Stadium

Levski SofiaHome

1.58 : 1.17

expected goals

Jagiellonia BialystokAway

46%Levski Sofia

26%Draw

28%Jagiellonia

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok is Levski Sofia to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Levski Sofia to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.6, Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Levski Sofia to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.641 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Levski Sofia 46%, the draw 26% and Jagiellonia Bialystok 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Levski Sofia the favourite at 2.00.
2
Recent form
Levski Sofia took 4 points from their last 3 games and Jagiellonia Bialystok took 6 from 5. Jagiellonia Bialystok come in with the better run.
3
Goals
Levski Sofia score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.0. Jagiellonia Bialystok score 1.2 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of Levski Sofia games and 6 of Jagiellonia Bialystok games in that run.
4
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Levski Sofiarecent form-3%
Jagiellonia recent form+3%

Levski Sofia form D D L L DJagiellonia form D W L W WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok: Levski Sofia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Levski Sofia host Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 17:45 at Vasil Levski National Stadium. Our prediction for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok is Levski Sofia to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Levski Sofia form

Levski Sofia have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 3 games, with 3 goals scored and 3 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 3 results read W, D, L, newest first.

Jagiellonia Bialystok form

Jagiellonia Bialystok have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 11 games, with 13 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Levski Sofia to score about 1.6 goals and Jagiellonia Bialystok about 1.2. That points to Levski Sofia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Levski Sofia to win and Over 2.5 at 3.64.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 11 games in all competitions.

	Levski Sofia	Jagiellonia
Games played	3	11
Wins	1	4
Draws	1	3
Losses	1	4
Goals scored	3	13
Goals conceded	3	15
Scored per game	1.0	1.2
Conceded per game	1.0	1.4
Home record	0W 0D 1L	3W 0D 3L
Away record	1W 1D 0L	1W 3D 1L
Clean sheets	0%	27%
Both teams scored	67%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	33%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Levski Sofia to win	44%	2.26	2.00	-11.6%
A Draw	25%	3.93	3.50	-11.0%
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win	27%	3.77	3.55	-5.9%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.07	1.80	-13.0%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.19	1.95	-11.0%
Levski Sofia -0.5	45%	2.21	1.87	-15.3%
Jagiellonia Bialystok +0.5	49%	2.05	1.74	-15.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93
Over 3.5 goals	30%	3.38
Both teams to score	55%	1.80
Levski Sofia or Draw	72%	1.38
Jagiellonia Bialystok or Draw	54%	1.85
Levski Sofia to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.49
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.10
Levski Sofia clean sheet	31%	3.22
Jagiellonia Bialystok clean sheet	21%	4.84

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%

1-09.4%

2-19.3%

2-08.0%

0-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Our prediction for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok is Levski Sofia to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Levski Sofia to score 1.6 goals and Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.2.

Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 2 of Levski Sofia last 3 games and 6 of Jagiellonia Bialystok last 11.

How are Levski Sofia playing?

How are Jagiellonia Bialystok playing?

What is the best bet for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Levski Sofia against Jagiellonia . A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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