Predictions › United Kingdom › Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle

League OneSat 3 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle prediction

Gaughan Group Stadium

Leyton OrientHome

1.20 : 1.85

expected goals

Plymouth ArgyleAway

24%Leyton Orient

24%Draw

52%Plymouth

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction: Plymouth Argyle to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.2, Plymouth Argyle 1.9
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1/42 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Leyton Orient 24%, the draw 24% and Plymouth Argyle 52%. The bookmakers agree and make Plymouth Argyle the favourite at 10/11.
2
Recent form
Leyton Orient took 7 points from their last 5 games and Plymouth Argyle took 9 from 5. Plymouth Argyle come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Leyton Orient won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Plymouth Argyle won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Leyton Orient score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. Plymouth Argyle score 1.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Leyton Orient games and 13 of Plymouth Argyle games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Leyton Orient won 0 and Plymouth Argyle won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Leyton Orient 1, Plymouth Argyle 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Leyton Orientrecent form-3%
Plymouthrecent form+4%
Plymouthrest between games-5%

Leyton Orient form W L L L DPlymouth form L W W W WHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle: Plymouth Argyle are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Leyton Orient host Plymouth Argyle in the League One on Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 at Gaughan Group Stadium. Our prediction for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Leyton Orient form

Leyton Orient have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Plymouth Argyle form

Plymouth Argyle have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Leyton Orient won 0, Plymouth Argyle won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Leyton Orient 1, Plymouth Argyle 3.

Our call

We expect Leyton Orient to score about 1.2 goals and Plymouth Argyle about 1.9. That points to Plymouth Argyle to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Leyton Orient	Plymouth
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	11
Draws	6	4
Losses	8	5
Goals scored	26	39
Goals conceded	23	27
Scored per game	1.3	1.9
Conceded per game	1.1	1.4
Home record	3W 2D 6L	6W 1D 4L
Away record	3W 4D 2L	5W 3D 1L
Clean sheets	45%	25%
Both teams scored	45%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Leyton Orient to win	24%	10/3	12/5	-20.0%
A Draw	23%	10/3	5/2	-17.0%
Plymouth Argyle to win	49%	21/20	10/11	-5.1%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	5/6	8/13	-12.3%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	6/4	11/10	-16.5%
Leyton Orient +0.5	48%	11/10	8/11	-17.1%
Plymouth Argyle -0.5	46%	6/5	5/6	-13.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	2/9
Over 2.5 goals	59%	8/11
Over 3.5 goals	36%	7/4
Both teams to score	60%	4/6
Leyton Orient or Draw	48%	21/20
Plymouth Argyle or Draw	76%	1/3
Leyton Orient to win and Over 2.5	16%	11/2
Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5	36%	9/5
Leyton Orient clean sheet	16%	11/2
Plymouth Argyle clean sheet	30%	12/5

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%

1-29.7%

0-18.1%

0-28.1%

2-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle?

Our prediction for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Leyton Orient to score 1.2 goals and Plymouth Argyle 1.9.

Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Leyton Orient last 20 games and 13 of Plymouth Argyle last 20.

How are Leyton Orient playing?

How are Plymouth Argyle playing?

What happened when Leyton Orient and Plymouth Argyle last met?

It ended Leyton Orient 1, Plymouth Argyle 3. In the last 1 meeting Leyton Orient won 0 and Plymouth Argyle won 1.

What is the best bet for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Leyton Orient against Plymouth. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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