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Predictions › United States › Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies
College FootballSat 7 Nov, 20:00 United States time

Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies prediction

Aggie Memorial Stadium

Liberty FlamesAway
25.2 : 20.5
projected points
New Mexico State AggiesHome
63%Liberty
37%New Mexico St
Eagle safe pickLiberty +5.5
-300

Quick answer

Our prediction for Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies is Liberty Flames to win, with a 63% chance. We project Liberty Flames 25.2 and New Mexico State Aggies 20.5. Our best bet is Liberty +5.5 at -300.

Prediction
Liberty Flames to win
Chance
63%
Projected score
Liberty Flames 25, New Mexico State Aggies 20
Projected total
45.7 points
Best bet
Liberty +5.5 at -300

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Liberty +5.5
75% chanceFair price -3002 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

New Mexico St to win
37% chanceFair price +1671 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives New Mexico State Aggies 37% and Liberty Flames 63%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    New Mexico State Aggies won 2 of their last 5 and Liberty Flames won 5 of their last 5. Liberty Flames come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    New Mexico State Aggies won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Liberty Flames won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    New Mexico State Aggies score 21.7 points a game and let in 28.7. Liberty Flames score 28.0 and let in 22.1. Their recent games average 50.4 and 50.1 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, New Mexico State Aggies won 0 and Liberty Flames won 1. The last one ended Liberty Flames 30, New Mexico State Aggies 27.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Liberty +5.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • New Mexico Strest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies: Liberty Flames are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New Mexico State Aggies host Liberty Flames in the College Football on Sat 7 Nov, 20:00 at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Our prediction for Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies is Liberty Flames to win, with a 63% chance. We project Liberty Flames 25.2 and New Mexico State Aggies 20.5. Our best bet is Liberty +5.5 at -300.

New Mexico State Aggies form

New Mexico State Aggies have 5 wins and 13 losses in their last 18 games, with 391 points scored and 516 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Liberty Flames form

Liberty Flames have 9 wins and 8 losses in their last 17 games, with 476 points scored and 375 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. New Mexico State Aggies won 0, Liberty Flames won 1. Last time out it finished Liberty Flames 30, New Mexico State Aggies 27.

Our call

We expect Liberty Flames to score about 25.2 points and New Mexico State Aggies about 20.5. That points to Liberty Flames to win. Our safest bet is Liberty +5.5 at -300. Our bold bet is New Mexico St to win at +167.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 18 games in all competitions.

New Mexico StLiberty
Games played1817
Wins59
Losses138
Points scored391476
Points conceded516375
Scored per game21.728.0
Conceded per game28.722.1
Home record3W 5L5W 3L
Away record2W 8L4W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

New Mexico St spreadCoversFair
New Mexico St -2.533%+207
New Mexico St +1.542%+138
New Mexico St +4.549%+102
New Mexico St +7.557%-132
New Mexico St +11.566%-197
Total pointsOverUnder
38.567%33%
42.558%42%
45.550%50%
48.543%57%
52.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. New Mexico St +3.5 wins if New Mexico St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies?

Our prediction for Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies is Liberty Flames to win, with a 63% chance. We project Liberty Flames 25.2 and New Mexico State Aggies 20.5. Our best bet is Liberty +5.5 at -300.

What is the projected score for Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies?

We project Liberty Flames 25.2 and New Mexico State Aggies 20.5, about 45.7 points in total.

How are New Mexico State Aggies playing?

New Mexico State Aggies have 5 wins and 13 losses in their last 18 games, with 391 points scored and 516 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Liberty Flames playing?

Liberty Flames have 9 wins and 8 losses in their last 17 games, with 476 points scored and 375 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when New Mexico State Aggies and Liberty Flames last met?

It ended Liberty Flames 30, New Mexico State Aggies 27. In the last 1 meeting New Mexico State Aggies won 0 and Liberty Flames won 1.

What is the best bet for Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies?

Liberty +5.5 at -300, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in New Mexico St against Liberty. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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