Predictions › Copa Libertadores › Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras

Copa LibertadoresWed 16 Sept, 22:00 UTC

Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras prediction

Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Liga de QuitoHome

1.13 : 1.10

expected goals

PalmeirasAway

35%LDU

30%Draw

34%Palmeiras

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras is Liga de Quito to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Liga de Quito to win
Chance: 35%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Liga de Quito 1.1, Palmeiras 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.061 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Liga de Quito 35%, the draw 30% and Palmeiras 34%. The bookmakers agree and make Liga de Quito the favourite at 2.65.
2
Recent form
Liga de Quito took 8 points from their last 5 games and Palmeiras took 11 from 5. Palmeiras come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Liga de Quito won 5 of their last 6 games at home. Palmeiras won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Liga de Quito score 1.2 goals a game and let in 0.8. Palmeiras score 1.6 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Liga de Quito games and 7 of Palmeiras games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 3 meetings, Liga de Quito won 1 and Palmeiras won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Palmeiras 1, Liga de Quito 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

LDUrecent form-1%
Palmeirasrecent form+3%
Palmeirasrest between games-5%

LDU form D L W D LPalmeiras form W W D D DHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras: Liga de Quito shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Liga de Quito host Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores on Wed 16 Sept, 22:00 at Rodrigo Paz Delgado. Our prediction for Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras is Liga de Quito to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Liga de Quito form

Liga de Quito have 7 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 13 games, with 15 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Liga de Quito won 1, Palmeiras won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Palmeiras 1, Liga de Quito 0.

Our call

We expect Liga de Quito to score about 1.1 goals and Palmeiras about 1.1. That points to Liga de Quito to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.06.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	LDU	Palmeiras
Games played	13	20
Wins	7	10
Draws	2	7
Losses	4	3
Goals scored	15	33
Goals conceded	11	14
Scored per game	1.2	1.6
Conceded per game	0.8	0.7
Home record	5W 1D 0L	5W 4D 2L
Away record	2W 1D 4L	5W 3D 1L
Clean sheets	54%	45%
Both teams scored	15%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	23%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Liga de Quito to win	33%	3.03	2.65	-12.7%
A Draw	29%	3.45	3.10	-10.2%
Palmeiras to win	32%	3.13	2.65	-15.4%
Over 2.5 goals	36%	2.80	2.35	-16.1%
Under 2.5 goals	62%	1.61	1.50	-6.7%
Liga de Quito -0.5	34%	2.96	2.45	-17.2%
Palmeiras +0.5	64%	1.55	1.44	-7.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	66%	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	39%	2.59
Over 3.5 goals	19%	5.35
Both teams to score	46%	2.17
Liga de Quito or Draw	66%	1.52
Palmeiras or Draw	65%	1.55
Liga de Quito to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.80
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5	17%	6.05
Liga de Quito clean sheet	33%	3.01
Palmeiras clean sheet	32%	3.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.2%

0-011.5%

1-011.3%

0-111.0%

2-17.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras?

Our prediction for Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras is Liga de Quito to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Liga de Quito to score 1.1 goals and Palmeiras 1.1.

Will both teams score in Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 2 of Liga de Quito last 13 games and 10 of Palmeiras last 20.

How are Liga de Quito playing?

How are Palmeiras playing?

What happened when Liga de Quito and Palmeiras last met?

It ended Palmeiras 1, Liga de Quito 0. In the last 3 meetings Liga de Quito won 1 and Palmeiras won 2.

What is the best bet for Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in LDU against Palmeiras. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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