Predictions › France › Lille vs Brest

Ligue 1Sat 17 Oct, 18:45 France time

Lille vs Brest prediction

Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

LilleHome

1.85 : 0.99

expected goals

BrestAway

57%Lille

24%Draw

19%Brest

Eagle safe pickLille or Draw

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lille vs Brest is Lille to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Lille or Draw at 1.28.

Prediction: Lille to win
Chance: 57%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lille 1.9, Brest 1.0
Best bet: Lille or Draw at 1.28
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Lille or Draw

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lille to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price 2.861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lille 57%, the draw 24% and Brest 19%. The bookmakers agree and make Lille the favourite at 1.59.
2
Recent form
Lille took 7 points from their last 5 games and Brest took 5 from 5. Lille come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lille won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Brest won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Lille score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.8. Brest score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Lille games and 10 of Brest games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Lille won 0 and Brest won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Lille 1, Brest 1.
6
The safest bet
Lille or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Brestrecent form-1%

Lille form L W L W DBrest form L L W D DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lille vs Brest: Lille are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lille host Brest in the Ligue 1 on Sat 17 Oct, 18:45 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Our prediction for Lille vs Brest is Lille to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Lille or Draw at 1.28.

Lille form

Lille have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Brest form

Brest have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Lille won 0, Brest won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Lille 1, Brest 1.

Our call

We expect Lille to score about 1.9 goals and Brest about 1.0. That points to Lille to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Lille or Draw at 1.28. Our bold bet is Lille to win and Over 2.5 at 2.86.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lille	Brest
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	5
Draws	4	7
Losses	5	8
Goals scored	28	26
Goals conceded	16	32
Scored per game	1.4	1.3
Conceded per game	0.8	1.6
Home record	3W 4D 3L	3W 3D 3L
Away record	8W 0D 2L	2W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Both teams scored	35%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lille to win	53%	1.89	1.59	-15.9%
A Draw	24%	4.25	4.10	-3.5%
Brest to win	19%	5.25	5.00	-4.8%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.65	-14.9%
Under 2.5 goals	42%	2.41	2.10	-12.8%
Lille -0.5	55%	1.83	1.53	-16.4%
Brest +0.5	38%	2.60	2.25	-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.85
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.15
Both teams to score	54%	1.86
Lille or Draw	81%	1.24
Brest or Draw	43%	2.31
Lille to win and Over 2.5	37%	2.73
Brest to win and Over 2.5	11%	8.81
Lille clean sheet	37%	2.70
Brest clean sheet	16%	6.35

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%

1-010.1%

2-010.0%

2-19.9%

0-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lille vs Brest?

Our prediction for Lille vs Brest is Lille to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Lille or Draw at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Lille vs Brest?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Lille to score 1.9 goals and Brest 1.0.

Will both teams score in Lille vs Brest?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Lille last 20 games and 11 of Brest last 20.

How are Lille playing?

How are Brest playing?

What happened when Lille and Brest last met?

It ended Lille 1, Brest 1. In the last 1 meeting Lille won 0 and Brest won 0.

What is the best bet for Lille vs Brest?

Lille or Draw at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lille against Brest. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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