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Predictions › France › Lille vs Le Havre AC
Ligue 1Sat 10 Oct, 15:15 France time

Lille vs Le Havre AC prediction

Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

LilleHome
1.87 : 0.85
expected goals
Le Havre ACAway
61%Lille
23%Draw
16%Le Havre AC
Eagle safe pickLille or Draw
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lille vs Le Havre AC is Lille to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Lille or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction
Lille to win
Chance
61%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Lille 1.9, Le Havre AC 0.8
Best bet
Lille or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Lille or Draw
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lille to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price 2.841 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lille 61%, the draw 23% and Le Havre AC 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Lille the favourite at 1.44.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lille took 7 points from their last 5 games and Le Havre AC took 2 from 5. Lille come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lille won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Le Havre AC won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lille score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.8. Le Havre AC score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Lille games and 6 of Le Havre AC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Lille won 1 and Le Havre AC won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Lille 1, Le Havre AC 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Lille or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Le Havre ACrecent form-4%
Lille form L W L W DLe Havre AC form L D L D LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lille vs Le Havre AC: Lille are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lille host Le Havre AC in the Ligue 1 on Sat 10 Oct, 15:15 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Our prediction for Lille vs Le Havre AC is Lille to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Lille or Draw at 1.23.

Lille form

Lille have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Le Havre AC form

Le Havre AC have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lille won 1, Le Havre AC won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Lille 1, Le Havre AC 1.

Our call

We expect Lille to score about 1.9 goals and Le Havre AC about 0.8. That points to Lille to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Lille or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is Lille to win and Over 2.5 at 2.84.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LilleLe Havre AC
Games played2020
Wins113
Draws48
Losses59
Goals scored2820
Goals conceded1627
Scored per game1.41.0
Conceded per game0.81.4
Home record3W 4D 3L2W 4D 4L
Away record8W 0D 2L1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets50%15%
Both teams scored35%55%
Over 2.5 goals35%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Lille to win58%1.731.44-17.1%
A Draw23%4.384.60+5.0%
Le Havre AC to win16%6.246.50+4.1%
Over 2.5 goals50%1.981.69-14.7%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.312.05-11.3%
Lille -1.538%2.622.10-20.0%
Le Havre AC +1.556%1.801.59-11.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.31
Over 2.5 goals51%1.96
Over 3.5 goals29%3.44
Both teams to score49%2.03
Lille or Draw84%1.19
Le Havre AC or Draw39%2.54
Lille to win and Over 2.537%2.67
Le Havre AC to win and Over 2.59%11.56
Lille clean sheet43%2.35
Le Havre AC clean sheet15%6.47

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-011.7%
2-011.5%
1-111.1%
2-19.8%
0-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lille vs Le Havre AC?

Our prediction for Lille vs Le Havre AC is Lille to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Lille or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Lille vs Le Havre AC?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Lille to score 1.9 goals and Le Havre AC 0.8.

Will both teams score in Lille vs Le Havre AC?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Lille last 20 games and 11 of Le Havre AC last 20.

How are Lille playing?

Lille have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Le Havre AC playing?

Le Havre AC have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Lille and Le Havre AC last met?

It ended Lille 1, Le Havre AC 1. In the last 2 meetings Lille won 1 and Le Havre AC won 0.

What is the best bet for Lille vs Le Havre AC?

Lille or Draw at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lille against Le Havre AC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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