Predictions › France › Lille vs Lens

Ligue 1Fri 30 Oct, 20:05 France time

Lille vs Lens prediction

Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

LilleHome

1.51 : 1.36

expected goals

LensAway

40%Lille

26%Draw

33%Lens

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lille vs Lens is Lille to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction: Lille to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lille 1.5, Lens 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lille to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 3.991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lille 40%, the draw 26% and Lens 33%. The bookmakers agree and make Lille the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
Lille took 7 points from their last 5 games and Lens took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Lille won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Lens won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Lille score 1.3 goals a game and let in 0.9. Lens score 1.9 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Lille games and 14 of Lens games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lille won 1 and Lens won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lille 3, Lens 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lensrecent form-1%

Lille form D L W L WLens form D L W L DHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lille vs Lens: Lille shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lille host Lens in the Ligue 1 on Fri 30 Oct, 20:05 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Our prediction for Lille vs Lens is Lille to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Lille form

Lille have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Lens form

Lens have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lille won 1, Lens won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lille 3, Lens 0.

Our call

We expect Lille to score about 1.5 goals and Lens about 1.4. That points to Lille to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Lille to win and Over 2.5 at 3.99.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lille	Lens
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	9
Draws	4	4
Losses	6	7
Goals scored	26	39
Goals conceded	19	30
Scored per game	1.3	1.9
Conceded per game	0.9	1.5
Home record	3W 4D 3L	6W 0D 3L
Away record	7W 0D 3L	3W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	45%	15%
Both teams scored	35%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lille to win	42%	2.40	2.25	-6.3%
A Draw	25%	3.96	3.45	-12.8%
Lens to win	33%	3.06	2.95	-3.5%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.94	1.65	-15.1%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.24	2.10	-6.4%
Lille -0.5	43%	2.31	2.10	-9.0%
Lens +0.5	53%	1.89	1.59	-16.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.27
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.83
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.09
Both teams to score	59%	1.71
Lille or Draw	67%	1.50
Lens or Draw	60%	1.68
Lille to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.84
Lens to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.73
Lille clean sheet	26%	3.88
Lens clean sheet	22%	4.55

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

2-18.8%

1-27.9%

1-07.9%

0-17.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lille vs Lens?

Our prediction for Lille vs Lens is Lille to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Lille vs Lens?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Lille to score 1.5 goals and Lens 1.4.

Will both teams score in Lille vs Lens?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Lille last 20 games and 13 of Lens last 20.

How are Lille playing?

How are Lens playing?

What happened when Lille and Lens last met?

It ended Lille 3, Lens 0. In the last 2 meetings Lille won 1 and Lens won 1.

What is the best bet for Lille vs Lens?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lille against Lens. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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